2023 Dart Rank: The NBA's 100 most promising Young Players

Ordering the NBA's "darts" (players entering year 3 and earlier), from 100 (and then some)-1.

You enjoy basketball, yes?

I do too. My name is Chuck. On my podcast, the Chucking Darts NBA and Draft Podcast, I talk about the NBA, its draft, and the relationship between the two in building championships. The goal of the podcast, besides quality of conversation, is to figure out predictive truths about the league and its draft. To make the draft less of the dice roll, random walk, or (ahem) dart throw than NBA teams would have you believe that it is.

This summer, I decided to rank every dart (NBA player with fewer of 3 years of experience, ie the 2021-2023 draft classes) that I could think of. The ranking is how good I expect these players to be, not how good they are right now. Quentin Grimes (37) is currently better than Ausar Thompson (26), but that does not mean Quentin is ranked higher. There are more in-depth capsules on players I see as clear future starters (38 players on this list).

Without further ado…

Apologies, aka They Could Still Be Good (alphabetical, incomplete. Just a few of my favorites)

Patrick Baldwin Jr., Jemaree Bouyea, Greg Brown III, Jared Butler, Colin Castleton, Sharife Cooper, Ricky Council IV, Keon Ellis, Andre Jackson, Quenton Jackson, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Christian Koloko, Kenneth Lofton Jr., Justin Lewis, Tre Mann,

Julian Phillips, Jalen Pickett, Nick Richards, Adama Sanogo, Day’Ron Sharpe, Jericho Sims, Dalen Terry, Jabari Walker, Trendon Watford, Tyty Washington, Jalen Wilson, Ziaire Williams, Blake Wesley

Honorable Mentions: 100-76 (alphabetical) Eventual Yearly Contract value: <$10m

Do not be deceived; these mentions are indeed honorable. “Eventual Yearly Contract Value” refers to multiyear contracts I expect these players to receive. They might bounce around, but they will be bouncing around the NBA and get paid handsomely to do so.

Santi Aldama, Amari Bailey, MarJon Beauchamp, Kobe Brown, Toumani Camara, Noah Clowney, Johnny Davis, Ayo Dosunmu, Kessler Edwards, Usman Garuba, Sam Hauser, Bones Hyland, GG Jackson, Jaime Jaquez, Colby Jones, Jake LaRavia, Maxwell Lewis, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Miles McBride, Jordan Miller, Josh Minott, Isaiah Mobley, Andrew Nembhard, Craig Porter Jr., Nick Smith Jr., Hunter Tyson.

The main reason the top 75 eludes the above list is because nearly all of them are currently blocked from opportunity and lack the overall impact to force their team’s hand. Only one was a lottery pick (Johnny Davis) and NBA rotations are extremely competitive.

Some have defensive questions, whether skinny for their position (Nick Smith, Bones, MarJon, McGowens) or slow footed (Mamu, LaRavia, Kobe Brown, Tyson). Others do not yet shoot at NBA range with frequency (Minott, Clowney, Camara, Davis). Raw projects (GG, Maxwell Lewis, Minott) receive less patience when drafted later. Guards who do not pressure the rim (McBride, Davis) have very little margin for error. And a couple play for the Charlotte Hornets.

Nonetheless, these players all have either pronounced athletic traits, two-way chops, or outlier offensive skills that will make them stick around as future drafts come and go. Honor them.

One to Follow This Year: Craig Porter Jr. was the best guard athlete that was not taken in the first round of the 2023 draft. He springs off the ground for on-ball or rotational blocks, can put opposing ballhandlers in hell, and has real playmaking vision and flair (with a not-hopeless jumper). Do not be stunned if he finds rotation minutes for a very, very good Cavs team.

Tier 7: Starter Theories and Less Impactful Rotation Fixtures. Consensus Draft Value: 18-25. Eventual Yearly Contract value: $10m-$14m

Starting in the NBA is very difficult. By definition, a *consistent* NBA starter is one of the 100 or so best players in the world. When a team drafts one, they tend to clutch them tightly. Consistent starters keep great offenses humming and provide at least some value on defense. These players all have uphill climbs to starting roles and are unlikely to scale up. But they are good enough to tantalize or have flashes of productivity. That has value, and usually means an extension from the drafting team.

75. Chris Duarte 74. Jett Howard 73. Dariq Whitehead 72. Davion Mitchell

71. Jaden Springer 70. Marcus Sasser 69. Aaron Wiggins 68. Dominick Barlow

67. David Roddy 66. Orlando Robinson 65. Corey Kispert 64. Ochai Agbaji

63. Jalen Hood-Schifino 62. Kobe Bufkin 61. Jordan Walsh

60. Nikola Jovic 59. Olivier Maxence-Prosper 58. Jordan Hawkins

57. Sidy Cissoko 56. Jose Alvarado

Plenty of players in this tier have true believers, with good reason. Six were top 15 picks (Davion, Jett, Agbaji, Kispert, Hawkins, Bufkin). At one point or another, Hood-Schifino and Kobe Bufkin were rumored to go in the top 10 of this year’s draft. Dariq Whitehead was a top 5 recruit who will be one of the league’s youngest rookies. Monty Williams is ready to pay a dowry to Marcus Sasser’s family.

Davion, Sasser, and Alvarado will enjoy long careers effectively running pick and roll on second units and pestering higher paid opponents on the ball to tangible regular season success. And I do mean tangible: Mitchell and Alvarado have each improved their team’s regular season net rating, Alvarado drastically so in each of his two seasons. Sasser is yet to debut, but his college record (90-17, somehow), OTD shooting, and defensive reputation should certify his place in this group shortly. Expect the Pistons to step forward this year, and Sasser to be a measurable part.

All are undersized and approaching their mid 20s, and undersized guards who lack stupendous vertical athleticism tend to recede as stakes rise. Their size prohibits them from guarding wings and their playoff minutes dwindle as on-ball stars play more heavily. Nonetheless, winning regular season games is not to be taken for granted. Given how frequently starters miss regular season time, these guards are worth extending.

The majority of this tier features a rapidly evolving role group, the Not Quite Wings. NQWs are players who would’ve been considered precious “D & 3” types ten years ago. Many would have started. Now, as wings have flooded the NBA but the amount of available starting spots have remained finite, the criteria has become more selective.

Players 6’5-6’6, even ones with exceptional touch and/or shooting ability (Whitehead, Agbaji, Hawkins, Bufkin) no longer have starting spots earmarked for them. Their defensive limitations demand a bit more playmaking versatility or some other offensive exceptionalism to justify 25+ minutes per game.

All of them have a theory to get there, of course. Hawkins is the best movement shooting prospect to enter the league in several years. Bufkin has a golden left hand and great guard length. Agbaji is the most physically gifted of the group and will likely receive a chance to start this season in a very well coached and spaced offense. Whitehead, a top 5 recruit a year ago, has the best “prospect profile” combining youth, wing length, and court processing.

Other NQWs include shooters with size who cannot quite defend (Kispert, Jett, Jovic) and defenders with size who cannot quite shoot (OMP, Walsh, Cissoko). I’m glossing over some very fun idiosyncrasies, like Jett’s handle or Cissoko’s bruising passion vision. These players are not easy to find and deserve years of investment. But as fun as it is to break ancillary skills down during draft season, those skills very rarely replace the shooting void opposing defenses can exploit or the slow feet and weak contests opposing offenses can exploit.

Some of these players may well mature into starters, but team context and development staff play an even more crucial role than usual. It takes a ton of effort and faith from everyone involved. Thankfully, NBA executives do not lack for faith. Or at least, they do not lack for insisting in trade negotiations that they do not lack for faith.¹

One to Follow This Year: Jalen Hood-Schifino enters the league with the wind at his back. His poise and court mapping are well beyond his years. He has great guard size, good strength, and is quickly figuring out how to leverage both. He is only 20 and has joined the most underrated developmental organization in the NBA. Starting guards tend to either be more athletic or more natural scorers than JHS is, but there is something about him. He loved his midrange pullup to a fault in his lone Indiana season. While he cannot make a career in “no man’s land,” it’s a deceptively good place to start. Defenses will allow breathing room there for a jail dribble PnR operator like JHS, and the game will slow for him quickly. The Lakers have high ambitions this season, but I have a nagging feeling JHS will flash in Tinseltown.

Tier 6: Matchup Starters. Consensus Draft Value: 12-17. Eventual Yearly Contract value: $14m-$20m

55. Jaden Hardy 54. Ousmane Dieng 53. Isaiah Jackson 52. Mark Williams

51. Anthony Black 50. Brandin Podziemski 49. Keyonte George 48. Cam Thomas

47. Jon Kuminga 46. Malaki Branham 45. Peyton Watson 44. Gradey Dick

43. Jalen Johnson 42. Moses Moody 41. Jalen Suggs 40. Herb Jones 39. Max Christie

Much of the analysis of the previous tier applies to this one. The main difference is that the extreme strengths of this group are so extreme that organizations will have no choice but to rely on them. But it takes the right organization to make one of these players a viable starter. Clear starters (the next tier) regularly amplify their star teammates. Matchup starters tend to require star teammates to compensate for their own weaknesses.

Like the backup PG group above, the offensively tilted guard group here (Hardy, Podz, Branham, Cam Thomas, Keyonte) will never guard wings and will be targeted by playoff offenses. Unlike that group, these 4 all have near-nuclear shooting and/or scoring talent that could win some of those playoff games. Cam scores 40 practically anytime he gets 35 minutes. Podz is a hoops genius with a lightning release. Keyonte will walk into the league with logo range and a knack for drawing fouls. Hardy’s bucket-getting snatched him rotation minutes on a decent team as a 20 year old second rounder. Malaki’s pullup game is already one of the league’s best. Once Vegas and Seattle get teams, all of these players are candidates to secure a lead guard role.

Jalen Johnson, Jon Kuminga, and Peyton Watson have shooting questions as big wings like OMP and Walsh do. But these three are undeniable, blue chip big wing athletes, the kind that each draft averages no more than four of. Watson and Kuminga particularly ooze defensive possibility, so much so that even if one of them (JK) has struggled in their offensive context, many teams will convince themselves they have the perfect mise-en-scène to produce a max player. That assumption may be foolish, especially since Kuminga has issues both with touch and decision-making. But he is still only 20 years old (!!) and has earned some patience somewhere from someone.

JJ does not have the touch to be a top 3 starter on a good team, but he has most everything else. Size, length, court processing, touch passing, gigantic mitts for rebounding and transition play, and an offensive context to maximize his gifts. I lack the fortitude to project the leap I would love to see from him because shooting just matters too much, but he can be an asset in the right mucked up playoff series.

As can Herb Jones and Jalen Suggs. Herb closed playoff games as a rookie, and though his shot dipped in Year 2, he is one of the league’s premier perimeter menaces with dry extension ink to boot. My instinct is that his underrated slashing game would look better on a team less full of similarly skinny wings than New Orleans.

Suggs is a forgotten man, both in Orlando (where they drafted a replacement, Anthony Black, at 6 this year) and in general since he had some folks arguing he should go number 2 overall 2 years ago. But count me among his believers. Like Herb, Jalen’s intensity, defensive technique, and overall approach to the game are excellent.

To wit: when Suggs shared the floor with Franz Wagner last year and Paolo Banchero sat, the Magic allowed 105 points per 100 possessions, an elite figure (Cleveland led the league in the regular season at 110). When Paolo Banchero joined them (likely against starters, to be fair), the defense plummeted to allowing 117 points per 100. The Magic do not seem interested in accommodating Suggs at all, and a smart team (the Clippers?) would do well to try and pry him away and develop him as a Derrick White type of anchoring defensive guard. Give this kid some spacing and see what happens.

Two to Follow This Year: Moses Moody, Max Christie. Mo and Max share much beyond veteran Californian organizations trying to contend. Both were heavy high school wing recruits who slipped a bit on draft night relative to preseason hype. Both lacked the burst to play regular minutes early on as teenaged rookies. Both are pretty clever perimeter players, both in relocating off the ball and in forcing contact and baiting FTs. And both are quick thinkers who are approaching the right dribble-pass-shoot calculus to become valuable to their teams.

Christie, appearing to have grown a bit, showed some Bookerish movement and touch in Summer League (30/31 FTs in 5 games) with notable burst and strength. Moody has rapidly applied his length (7 foot WS) to become a league average defender at a very young age. He has played relevant minutes in two consecutive postseasons before age 21. I prefer Christie because I believe in his OTD game and overall shooting touch more than Moses, but both have improved too much in a short time to not return meaningful value.

Tier 5: Clear Starters with Playoff Value. Consensus Draft Value: 9-13. Eventual Yearly Contract value: $20m-$25m

Clear starters! We did it! Consensus lottery value! These 38 players will help define the league over the next ten years! Are you rejuvenated???? Let’s go into a bit more detail.

38. Christian Braun (Draft slot: 20th, 2022. My rank at the time: 31st.)

Christian is not yet a starter for his team, but that’s only because he plays for the best one. His skillset is a series of checked boxes for a positive, low usage wing. He is a twitchy, perpetually alert on ball and help defender at 6’5, with quick hands and instincts about when to force deflections and disrupt driving rhythms. Much of his time in the playoff series against the Suns was spent guarding Kevin Durant or Devin Booker, and he made life inconvenient for both. No easy feat.

Braun’s offensive game is fatless. He either shoots or drives immediately, and his tendency to pass on the move, which might disenchant other teams and coaches, is a welcome feature in Denver. One of Jokic’s many hidden talents is how good of a target he makes himself to receive passes as a cutter, post threat, or kickout. His footwork, wingspan, and timing are all exquisite, and makes Braun’s solid decision making a snug fit in an all-world offense.

I debated leaving Braun in the tier above because his reluctance to look for his own shot would normally keep him on the bench. But with Denver’s system and his own pedigree, he gets the benefit of the doubt. His back-to-back championships in college and the pros is not just a cute fact. That amount of success at such a formative time can act like a developmental trampoline. Winning decisions become instinct. Forged in title fires, Braun’s peripheral game will secure a starter’s payday when the time comes.

37. Quentin Grimes (Draft slot: 25th, 2021. My rank at the time: 37th.)

Quentin Grimes started 66 regular season games for a 5 seed last year and 6 playoff games. He missed 2 against Cleveland with injury and came off the bench in 3 against Miami as he was getting healthy and Tom Thibodeau was rolling with Josh Hart.

That decision clarified Grimes’ value, since the Heat sagged off of Hart every chance they got and the Knicks offense noticeably slogged. They were not much more efficient with Grimes starting, but there is no questioning the spacing Grimes provides (to say nothing of drawing the Jimmy Butler assignment for long stretches).

He has shot 38% from 3 on healthy volume in each of his first two seasons, and his shooting form, like his whole game, is maximum effort. High vertical jump, high release, and he can get into it off a dead sprint. When Grimes drives on offense or closes out on defenses, he hits maximum speed quickly and can stop on a dime. His feet are insanely quick, and Grimes defends very well with his chest, even if he lacks elite wing length.

When he gets to the rim, he is always looking for kickouts and dump off passes (2 apg, 2:1 ATO), likely to a fault. His next step is to more aggressively finish at the hoop, which should improve as he gets to his athletic prime. He may top out at 15-17ppg, but his selection at pick 25 is an unequivocal home run. You can win a title with Grimes starting at 2, and that’s what this category is all about.

36. Cason Wallace (Draft slot: 10th, 2023. My rank at the time: 14th.)

For many 2023 darts, I will be brief(er) because little has changed since I wrote about all of them in my pre-draft writeup.

Cason has a litany of starter qualities: excellent defensive guard length and timing on in gaps and on digs, connective passing accuracy, solid shooting touch on each level, and exceeding toughness and coachability. It is no wonder OKC used some of their excess draft capital to get him: he will quickly assimilate into their culture, help winning, and never cause a headache.

Cason lacks any signature creativity or athletic explosion, and at 6’4, he will not get the chance to develop lead guard usage. Usually, a high floor means a deceptively high ceiling. Many evaluators, including me, have used that principle to predict star outcomes. The league’s depth nowadays means that a starter making generational wealth is a high ceiling. That is what awaits Cason.

35. Brice Sensabaugh (Draft slot: 28th, 2023. My rank at the time: 9th.)

Brice is a getter of buckets par excellence. In contrast to Cason, he is all signature skill. Namely, using a Bane/Roddy body derivative to bump and grind his way to pullup jumpers. Brice was my favorite all around scorer in this year’s draft, and he is so wide that his off the dribble jumper seems inevitable. He does not have great burst, so a lot of his shots look contested, but trust me, he is rarely bothered.

When he is spotting up or attacking space in Will Hardy’s read and react system, Brice will look like the draft’s unquestioned steal. Unfortunately, getting and staying on the court will be a challenge. Knee issues have persisted dating back to high school, and his feet are not ready to cover ground for an NBA defense.

Brice may end up a devastating 6th man, but college basketball had not ever seen a 3 level shooting talent quite like him. Strength and shooting typically make for very rich NBA players.

34. Cam Whitmore (Draft slot: 20th, 2023. My rank at the time: 7th.)

The 2023 draft night freefall for Cam Whitmore, an outstanding wing athlete with shooting range and iso defensive chops, showed why the draft is such a ripe area for smart teams to separate themselves from weaker ones.

It’s not that his own coach decided to perpetuate a dorky and lame whisper campaign that will likely immolate his own career, or that there is lingering concern over prior leg injuries. Injury concerns are certainly valid. It’s that roughly ten teams passed on Cam because other teams were passing on Cam and they had not done any homework.

Teams have to justify draft picks to owners. If they have sold that person on a couple players for months, then their own confirmation bias might lead them to dismiss an unexpected opportunity like Cam.

That is quite dumb, because despite some sever tunnel vision, Cam’s skillset almost always ends up starting in the NBA. He is roster-blocked in Houston, but he is too talented to suppress for long.

33. Dyson Daniels (Draft slot: 8th, 2022. My rank at the time: 11th.)

Dyson is a confounding talent. Barely 20 years old, he is a good, supersized guard defender right now, with excellent timing and enough strength through his chest to make All-Defense in several years.

He can use his length to pressure the rim and access difficult passing angles off the dribble. He thinks quickly. He rebounds his position quite well and if you squint, you can see a player capable of controlling the tempo of a whole game for stretches.

But he will never get the chance because he is not a creative or natural scorer. The first priority of any NBA starter is to threaten defenses enough so that their offensive machine keeps moving. Dyson is still visibly feeling his way around how to do that. In the meantime, his team is trying to contend in the Western Conference right now.

Dyson flashes legitimate dominance on defense and *should* shoot just well enough eventually. But the gap between ceiling and floor is as wide here as it is for anyone in the top 75.

32. Dereck Lively (Draft slot: 12th, 2023. My rank at the time: 12th.)

In contrast to Daniels, Dereck Lively’s ceiling and floor are close neighbors. They reside about 12 feet off the ground, because that’s where he spends most of his time. Lively is an above the rim play finisher on offense and a long, exceedingly mobile imposing rim protector on defense.

He does not look for his own shot, so his offensive game will be sparse. But Lively understands the importance of ball movement, and he kicks out of short rolls as well as any American 7 footer in recent memory. The ball will pop with Lively on the floor, and his versatility on defense practically ensures a harmonious fit with Luka Doncic.

Scoring threats this narrow are not stars, but there is something quite soothing about a defensive anchor this secure and bought into winning. There is a skeleton of a great team forming in Dallas.

31. Shaedon Sharpe (Draft slot: 7th, 2022. My rank at the time: 12th.)

This is as low as you are liable to find anyone on Shaedon Sharpe, so let me restate that his play will earn him many millions of dollars and that is wonderful.

Much like Cam Whitmore, Shaedon’s youth, athleticism, and shooting talent guarantee a starter’s floor. I cannot endorse a star ceiling because stars in the NBA tend to either overwhelm opponents on both sides of the ball or operate entire offenses, constantly court mapping and capitalizing on passing windows.

Athletic as he is, Shaedon is only 6’5, and his limited reps ever running PnR make it unlikely he will have the chance to run a whole offense. He will play off of Scoot Henderson, which is great for his (very promising) C&S jumper and nuclear dunking off cuts. But it will also relegate him off the ball, and off ball 6’5 players are too reminiscent of NQWs for my taste. Even ones as gifted as Shaedon.

He will continue to flash on offense and defense, but he played so little basketball before reaching the NBA that his instincts, even his scoring instincts on the ball, are just underdeveloped. That can change, but not to the degree Shaedon will need to be the superstar his supporters may expect.

30. Jarace Walker (Draft slot: 8th, 2023. My rank at the time: 8th.)

Somewhat like Dyson Daniels, Jarace has excellent defensive instincts and constantly positions himself well in rotations. His outstanding length (7’2) and timing creates deflections in passing lanes and in recovery. His technique is such that he should stay on the court and contest well at the rim without fouling as a rookie, a very rare feat.

Jarace is wired to win and can produce some of the most delightful connective passing for a big wing (6’7, 230ish) that you can find. He is like Christian Braun in this way, for better and worse. Jarace lives to pass off of drives and cuts; you can see it excite him when he knows the low man has reacted to him and he can pop a touch lob or interior bounce to a play finisher.

That wiring tends to predict lower usage. Jarace will shoot his 3s to keep defenses honest, but is touch is middling and he just does not attack the hoop enough to threaten defenses at a star level. He is a good athlete, not a great one, so I do not quite see a profile for him as anything more than a starter. One of the league’s most fun starters, to be sure. Especially in Indiana. But a starter nonetheless.

29. AJ Griffin (Draft slot: 16th, 2022. My rank at the time: 5th.)

AJ’s pitch is refreshingly simple. Shoot ball into hoop. Despite some pre-college interruptions (multiple injuries, quarantine) there has never been a time where AJ didn’t set nets on fire. His rookie season was no exception, where he carved out 20 mpg for himself on 46/39/89 splits as a teenager on a decent team. No other player on this list can boast that level of NBA efficiency at AJ’s age.

Normally, those numbers and AJ’s muscular physique would have me placing him at least a tier higher. AJ certainly needs to expand his game off the dribble, but with touch this good, he does not need a deep bag or finishing package. My reticence is twofold: I still worry about his lower leg injury history, and star outcomes tend to be reserved for players who, for better or worse, seize the ball. Maybe I am naive, but AJ seems too comfortable canning his spot ups and relocating around more ball dominant teammates, and Trae and Dejounte are certainly that. My hunch is that AJ will enjoy a great career helping great offenses, but never taking steps to lead any of them.

28. Jalen Duren (Draft slot: 13th, 2022. My rank at the time: 6th.)

Jalen is Steven Adams’ heir, a frighteningly strong, astute, good-natured big who does not get enough credit for his nimble creativity as a DHO initiator. Duren was the league’s youngest player last year, and the fact that he not only belonged physically but could impose his physicality on the glass speaks to the scarcity of his talent.

We are about to read about a lot of Detroit Pistons, and Jalen’s role on that squad moving forward is crucial. Once he develops his screen-setting, he will squash opponents to create space that Cade Cunningham needs or that Ausar Thompson and Jaden Ivey will gleefully devour. And he is not inept on the ball either; Duren is an alert passer who can dribble efficiently downhill. That is to say, once or twice before he drop steps some poor soul into oblivion.

Though Duren’s touch does not suggest a new incoming dimension from his jumper, I think some hope is warranted. His form is not atrocious. More importantly, Duren understands the rhythms of his teammates and I get the feeling he can expand his game gradually without ball-stopping and subverting possessions.

Pay little heed to rough defensive footwork on his rookie tape. Duren was the league’s youngest player last year, the age of most incoming rookies now. No big that young positions themselves correctly. But there is a concern that Duren, only at 6’9-6’10, will never be a dominant rim deterrent at center, to say nothing of whatever the hell Detroit is doing with their 4 bigs. Jalen needs shooters around him instead of mopping up another center’s mistakes.

Maybe there is an offensive bar for non-dominant defensive players that Duren cannot clear. But strength, youth, and aptitude is a combination I will not abandon. I cannot bet on a 6’9 big with an extreme jumper question to make an All Star team, but when I watch Jalen Duren, I want to.

27. Jeremy Sochan (Draft slot: 9th, 2022. My rank at the time: 15th.)

Most NBA rookies can imitate confidence. Talented guards can string moves together. Play finishers can dunk with force. Shotmaking prospects can hit a game-winner and seem unshakable. Most of the time, those moments are exceptions that belie inefficient numbers and high turnover rates. What seems like confidence is either misplaced or misidentified.

You know what confidence really is? Adopting a one-handed free throw motion midseason as an NBA teenager, risking ridicule and meme immortality, and instantly improving your free throw percentage by 30 points. THIRTY POINTS. Sochan shot 46% on 24 two-handed FTs, then 77% on 86 one handed freebies. Not only has that never happened in NBA history, NBA regulars with FT issues never tweak their aesthetics so drastically. They are too insecure.

Well, Jeremy Sochan is not insecure. He is one of the most confident and intellectually advanced teenagers I have ever seen. His defensive reads and aptitude helped get him drafted in the top 10. His follicular artistry and agitating playstyle invites young Rodman comps, but he applies the same explorative charisma on offense, where he is constantly seizing more opportunities to run PNR, run either side of DHO, cut hard offball to finish at the rim, take above the break 3s, etc. But he doesn’t do it selfishly. He is already the smartest player on the floor much of the time. Sochan understands standing on the perimeter as a non-spacer is not only nonproductive, but insulting to an artist like himself.

Starting in the NBA is about earning the respect of opposing defenses. Jeremy Sochan may never be a league average shooter per se, but he will earn that respect. He will not abide any other outcome. I have much more to say about Sochan but for now, just enjoy him alongside Victor Wembanyama. Playmaking enforcers (Marcus Smart, Draymond) are very rare. When we find one, we must cherish them.

Tier 4: Fringe All Star Ceilings. Consensus Draft Value: 6-8. Eventual Yearly Contract value: $25m-$30m

All Star appearances still matter, but it is possible to game the math these days; with injuries and “injuries,” the 24 yearly spots tend to swell to around 30. If a good player starts and stays healthy long enough, they can sneak onto a roster once or twice. The following tier is for players either so athletically gifted on the wing or so skilled as initiators and scorers that they will keep getting bites at the apple as, at minimum, a “top 3 starter” on their team. Depending on team success, those players can get rewarded at the back end of All Star rosters.

26. Ausar Thompson (Draft slot: 5th, 2023. My rank at the time: 11th.)

One of the most fascinating parts of the 2023 draft is how many top ten players paired excellent guard or wing athleticism with questionable jumpers. Ausar and his twin Amen, Jarace Walker, Anthony Black, Bilal Coulibaly (and if we want to have some fun, Scoot Henderson) all have a checkered history with reliably putting the ball in the hoop.

Traditionally, the best players in a given draft are the ones who figure out how to score efficiently, so all of these players require a leap of faith of sorts, whether their supporters want to believe it or not.

I have already ranked Black and Walker, and so now we are entering the group from that top 10 I believe most in. With a shaky jumper, where does that efficiency come from?

For both Thompson twins, the answer starts in the eyes. Ausar and Amen both process the game with instantaneous alacrity, creating transition opportunities with defensive activity and hit ahead passes like few prospects ever before.

Their passes are of a different sort than Jokic rebound + baseball slings. More akin to a soccer prodigy, Ausar’s “first touch” off a rebound or live ball combines aggression with control. His initial dribble does not just push the ball; it directs it to open space with the purpose of engaging a backpedaling defender or creating a better passing angle for a streaking teammate. He and his brother are transition maestros, and their skills will (thankfully) force their teams to run.

I did not quite perceive just how well-timed Ausar’s game is until I saw him live in Summer League. Playing alongside Jaden Ivey, Ausar was easily the more composed, accurate, precognitive passer. Whether leading the break, driving off a DHO, or touch passing as a connector, Ausar’s reads were nearly perfect. He knew what he wanted to do before he threw his pass not because his skillset only gave him one option, but because he had already processed all possible options and settled on the correct one.²

Ausar’s defensive instincts are not far behind. Both he and Amen cover ground and elevate off it so quickly that they can hound a ballhandler over a screen and secure a help block at the rim on the same possession. There will be an adjustment to NBA speed and competition coming from OTE, but Ausar should adjust and be a positive defender shortly. How good he becomes depends in part on how much strength he adds to his frame.

Speaking of NBA adjustments, shooting still matters a lot. No matter how cleverly Ausar cuts or how acrobatically he contorts himself, the ball still has to go in the hoop when he shoots it. That is why he finds himself towards the back of this tier. He may be a better shooting prospect than his brother, but that is not saying much, and defenses will sag off of him until shown otherwise. For a primarily off-ball player, that is a lot to overcome. Off-ball wing starters who shoot “poorly” still shoot better than you think.³ With smarts and athleticism this good, Ausar still has an All Star path, but it is narrow.

25. Leonard Miller (Draft slot: 33rd, 2023. My rank at the time: 6th.)

I went deep on Leonard as my Valedartorian (the player I believe in most strongly relative to the NBA decisionmakers and everyone else) in the 2023 class. Leonard’s touch, flexibility, strength, and precociousness off the dribble is worth much more than the 33rd pick he was selected with.

Unfortunately, a selection that late makes Leonard’s journey more fraught since he will be gifted nothing. G league time is ok for a rawer player, even for someone who played (and excelled) there last year. But it still makes for a long way to go, especially with KAT, Naz, and McDaniels gobbling up big wing minutes for the (likely) foreseeable future.

Thankfully, there are not many 6’10 rebounding machines who can finish with either hand off the dribble coming through the draft anytime soon, so Lenny’s space here is secure. In addition to the scarcity of his skillset, Miller’s approach and coachability appear to be of the highest quality. His growth in the last 12 months is among the most dramatic in the world for pre-NBA players, and it is not an accident.

24. Bilal Coulibaly (Draft slot: 7th, 2023. My rank at the time: 10th.)

Speaking of rapid growth, Bilal Coulibaly may still be literally growing. He has done so nonstop over the past 18 months, to the point where he now stands roughly 6’7+ with a 7’2+ wingspan. Those dimensions put him in company with the likes of Jarace Walker, OG Anunoby, Tari Eason, and Scottie Barnes. Being so new to his body and barely 19 years old, Bilal is much skinnier than those gentlemen. But make no mistake: he moves better than all of them, closer to Thompson Twin or Jaden McDaniels-level grace, balance, and explosion.

His defensive tools stuck out both in the French pro league playing next to Victor Wembanyama and in Summer League. When Bilal locks onto a ballhandler, they are in utter hell, and he can reach so many balls around the rim that it is fair to imagine him excelling as a small ball center once his body fills out.

His physical growth allows for some more patience on his jumper since he is still adjusting to his frame. Bilal shot roughly 52/33/71 in France, numbers that do not scare me off given that he was a midseason addition to a veteran team which (understandably) ran zero plays for him. I expect the Wizards to leverage his absurd finishing skills through scripted snug pin-downs and some DHO sets, not unlike the Pacers did with Bennedict Mathurin last year. Bilal is no shrinking violet; he did not try to take over games, but he played and shot with decisiveness and confidence, all the more impressive given his changing body and role.

Many folks outside of the Wizards organization seemed spooked by Bilal since he was not a blue chip recruit and as recently as last summer did not stand out among international NBA prospects. I can appreciate that, but a drafting tenet that gets lost in the shuffle sometimes is to use all of that historical data to evaluate how good someone is right now, not how good you may have expected them to be 12 months ago. Bilal has dominated a youth league and held his own in professional playoffs and summer league in those 12 months, flashing defensive dominance and radically shifting his usage while improving constantly along the way.

Some players make leaps, and isn’t that the point of all of this anyway?

23. Brandon Miller (Draft slot: 2nd, 2023. My rank at the time: 5th.)

Brandon Miller has a lot of scoring ahead of him in the NBA. He is a very good C&S prospect, with a quick release he can access off the dribble from three, and his length and handle allow him to draw fouls at an excellent rate when he gets a defender on his hip. There will be seasons when he runs particularly hot from 3 in the first few months and an All Star selection will be there for the taking, provided his team is winning games.

My relative tepidity has to do with how little in Brandon’s game projects to overwhelm opponents. He lacks both burst and strength as a wing athlete, and even with a 6’8 frame and good length, Brandon will struggle to create the sort of easy separation and buckets that offensively tilted All Stars feast on. His low release contributed to bad midrange numbers at Alabama, and though NBA spacing cures many ills, low releases inside the arc tend not to be among them.

Brandon’s rise to number 2 overall had to do with the tendency of NBA teams to draft in broad strokes: he is a big wing who can shoot and play off the dribble. So many teams hear the word “wing” and melt. The truth is, 25+ NBA teams have some wing making a ton of money, including Miller’s Hornets (Gordon Hayward). To be one of those wings that rises to the top of the league as number 2 picks should, Miller will need a dominant trait. While I can see one or two All Star appearances with the stars aligned, I do not quite see how he dominates without becoming a top 10 shooter on the planet.

22. Jaden Ivey (Draft slot: 5th, 2022. My rank at the time: 3rd.)

Unlike Brandon, Jaden has a very clear dominant trait. His legs generate more force more quickly than nearly every guard in the world, resulting in a lightning first step and, just as important, the ability to decelerate on a dime.

Deceleration is a weapon even for pedestrian drivers because it mucks the timing of a backpedaling or flat-footed defender. Very few people in the league can stop from the speed at which Ivey starts and maintain balance. With Cade Cunningham and Ausar Thompson as passers and Jalen Duren as a screener, Ivey will have many chances to capitalize on his stop step in the lane.

It’s a good thing too, because Ivey’s touch has always been a bit suspect, and his height (6’4) puts him dangerously close to the NQW issue I see with Shaedon Sharpe. But unlike Shaedon, Ivey has received playmaking reps as a lead guard with Cunningham’s injury last year. Though he did not score efficiently, 5 assists to 3 turnovers as a converted rookie SG is not bad at all. His reads can be a step late, but he is usually a physical step ahead, and it averages out to someone to whom defenses still react and grant passing windows.

Like the next couple of players ahead of him, Ivey may struggle to get the usage among ballhandling teammates to reach All Star heights. He is rawer than he seems even in choosing which shots to take inside the arc. But athleticism this potent on the ball has a way of popping late. When Ivey finds his NBA rhythm in a well-spaced lineup, he will have a chance to devastate.

21. Austin Reaves (Draft slot: undrafted, 2021. My rank at the time: 54th.)

A successful young dart on the Los Angeles Lakers does not leave much analysis for me that has not already been covered elsewhere. What is most relevant to me about Reaves is that his college numbers encapsulate how important it is for a player to know their role.

As an underclassman at Wichita State, Reaves was one of the country’s best C&S 3 point threats. As an upperclassman at Oklahoma, Reaves shifted onto the ball. With a poorly spaced team, his 3p percentage fell to around 30%. His draft stock took a big hit, and foolish evaluators such as yours truly figured him for a player limited both by athleticism and inefficiency.

What Reaves continues to prove both in NBA and international play is that great decision makers with size win games. Reaves can solve problems in PnR, has enough craft to get to the line (another overlooked trait at Oklahoma), and still finds his flamethrowing 3 pointer when left open. Most importantly, he knows when to add and subtract. His college experience prepared him for the shifting role so many on-ball college guards struggle with. It is no wonder he assimilated well into Team USA at the FIBA world cup.

Playing with anyone in any style does not exactly mean All Star games are in his future, but do not underestimate it either. Playmaking and shooting off the dribble while getting to the FT line is how players end up averaging 25 ppg. I am done underestimating Austin Reaves; once is enough.

20. Josh Giddey (Draft slot: 6th, 2021. My rank at the time: 6th.)

Josh’s All Star path is pleasantly statistical. As a 20 year old, he averaged nearly 17 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists a game. That combined total (31) is on par with Paolo Banchero’s rookie season (20/7/4), also at age 20. Paolo appears higher on this list for other reasons but counting stats still count. Giddey has the ability to control a game on offense for long stretches and at his peak will be a top 10 passer in the world.

Josh gets a lot of his buckets through his size and handle, trudging into the paint with relative ease and lifting touch shots and layups over most guards checking him. I worry about that scoring method surviving in the playoffs, partly because Josh will be nudged off of the ball in favor of SGA and Jalen Williams more and more. He will not be able to make up much on defense, as Josh is a prototypical “5th defender” who can position himself well but not deter a whole lot. That may change as he gets stronger, but he will always defend relatively upright and predictably.

It is not as simple as “better shooters are more scalable,” because many good shooters are either coin-flippy or outright horrific playoff players. Josh can manufacture transition through rebounding and creates good looks in the half court. That will always be important. But incorporating Josh’s skillset into a deep contender means someone, somewhere will have to sacrifice. Good as he is, Josh should not be forcing Shai Gilgeous and Jalen Williams to do so.

19. Taylor Hendricks (Draft slot: 9th, 2023. My rank at the time: 4th.)

There is no quicker way to my heart of dartness than to hit jumpers from all over the court, switch on defense, and cover enough ground to protect the rim on help rotations. Patrick Williams, Trey Murphy III, and Jabari Smith all found their way toward the tippy top of my draft boards the last three years. The results? Uncertain! But I cannot, and have no inclination to, help myself. I believe in defensively malleable big wings who shoot from everywhere. Taylor, welcome home.

Like Leonard Miller or Austin Reaves, Taylor had to fight the tired and well-worn bias of not having been a major high school recruit (roughly 40th in his HS class) before playing well all year at Central Florida. He mainly finished plays on offense because his team did not quite know what they had. As opposing teams gradually realized that Taylor could rise up at 6’9+ and hit shots over anyone, he started seeing more help in the middle of the floor and flashed quick processing and accurate vision late in the year.

Hendricks has never been empowered to play much off the dribble, but even on relatively few drives he used his flexibility to frequently dip his shoulder below and past the chest of his defender. Defensively, his ability to combine sliding with guards on the perimeter and tracking the ball for blocks was unmatched among 2023 NCAA wings.

What many people imagine Brandon Miller to be (a big wing with few holes that should start quickly and steadily improve), Hendricks actually is. Brandon may have an off the dribble game now, but Hendricks’ defensive value is more important. Wings who can start at a young age can reach stardom while developing their handle.⁴ Defensive exceptionalism is harder to find.⁵

Utah has a lot of minutes committed between Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, and Kelly Olynyk. It may take half a season, but even they cannot keep Hendricks on the bench. His game may seem “safe,” but “safe young starter” can frequently mean “future star.”

18. Bennedict Mathurin (Draft slot: 6th, 2022. My rank at the time: 8th.)

Bennedict Mathurin’s rookie season is lost a bit in narrative molasses. So it goes when a rookie starts hot and then sees their efficiency dip. Mathurin scored over 1300 points, playing in 78 games for a nearly 17 ppg average.

Since the landmark 2018 class, here are the most rookie points scored:

1. Trae Young 1549

2. Luka Doncic 1526

3. Paolo Banchero 1437

4. Anthony Edwards 1392* - 70 game season

5. Collin Sexton 1371

6. Bennedict Mathurin 1302

7. Franz Wagner 1197

8. Ja Morant 1193* - 72 game season

9. Jalen Green 1157

10. Scottie Barnes 1134

That list might seem reductive, but the more I do this work, the more I appreciate buckets. It is very useful for a dart to stay healthy and get repetition in scoring the damn ball. The only player on the above list who lacks a star theory is Collin Sexton, and Bennedict Mathurin is not 6’0.

Mathurin’s scoring revolves around his incredible ability to get the line, where he was just behind Paolo in FTs made (376 to 394) despite Paolo’s well-earned reputation as an incredibly rare foul drawing talent. The Pacers smartly designed play after play to get Mathurin on the move downhill and he did not disappoint. Arguably no dart shooting guard in the league matches his blend of strength, explosion, and shooting talent.

That scoring baseline helped cover for Mathurin pedestrian 3p% (32%), which included an artificially low catch and shoot number likely to improve. Even so, Mathurin helped the Pacers to a 121 offensive rating when he shared the floor with superstar Tyrese Haliburton.

Bennedict’s demerits (passing vision, defensive rotations, handle) all tend to improve if one can stay on the floor in a productive environment. A Hali-centric Pacers offense approaches utopian, and if Mathurin is part of 121s with a pretty scripted role, his ceiling is considerably higher by Years 3, 4, and 5.

Mathurin’s 6’5ish frame may cap his star outcomes, and like Sharpe, he will never lead a team’s offense. But his comfort in getting that ball into the hoop is uncommon. He is a no-nonsense athletic marvel already better than most secondary options ever get at manufacturing buckets. Do not ignore.

17. Keegan Murray (Draft slot: 4th, 2022. My rank at the time: 9th.)

Keegan Murray made more 3s than any other rookie in NBA history. While a specialist can occasionally pop a big rookie number in that category (Rudy Fernandez, Landry Shamet), Keegan is no specialist and thankfully, the Kings know it.

Like Austin Reaves, Keegan’s college experience hints at a more diverse player than his rookie shot diet suggests. Keegan was a more supplementary player in his first year at Iowa, amassing deflections and standing out defensively in Fran McCaffrey’s no-center scheme. In his second and final year, he was one of the most dominant transition players in NCAA history. In the halfcourt, he showed time and again his ability to extend and finish with touch at or above the rim. His 3 point range and shot versatility improved rapidly during the season. While I thought his 3 was his best skill at draft time, it was clear he had a coachable, well-rounded game.

Moreover, rookie specialists do not start and contribute on Western Conference 3 seeds. Murray’s brief summer league dominance, showcasing his quick, high release jumper off dribble and in midrange, lent credence to the Kings’ comments that he could be their franchise cornerstone.

Like many young wings, Murray needs repetition handling the ball in PnR to become a superstar. But length, touch, and jumping mechanics this good compensate for a lot. When in doubt, rise and fire.

16. Tari Eason (Draft slot: 17th, 2022. My rank at the time: 13th.)

At the end of the previous tier I discussed Jeremy Sochan’s mental aptitude and confidence. I believe those two qualities can help inform the rest of his skill development enough for a lucrative starting role. Given how much efficient scoring matters and how unrefined Sochan’s touch is, those “intangibles” need to be among the best in the NBA for Sochan to reach those heights.

Tari Eason and Sochan are both “dirty work” practitioners, and we have seen those types succeed as wing starters before. Kyle Anderson, Marcus Smart, and even Tari’s new teammate Dillon Brooks parlay POA defense, switchability, and offensive chutzpah into starting careers.

It is one thing to make hay as a 4th or 5th offensive starter tilting on defensive value. How can a player become an All-Star, possibly a multi-time All-Star as this ranking suggests, relying principally on “dirty work?”

To begin, Tari will be longer, stronger, meaner, and more of a badass than most everyone else in the league. Some dirty work is between the numbers, like screening or boxing out or rotating on time. Tari’s exploits show up. At LSU, he posted steal numbers fit for a lottery guard, rebounding numbers (particularly offensive) fit for a lottery center, and block numbers fit for an athletic, roaming lottery 4. And he scored and drew fouls like a number one option.

In his rookie season in a broken system, Tari plied his aggression immediately. The Rockets were nearly 7 points per 100 possessions better on defense with Tari on the floor, and they outscored opponents in a decent sample when Tari played with Alperen Sengun.⁶ He could slide with guards and switch onto forwards, relentlessly hunting deflections wherever he could. Tari was among the league’s best players in offensive rebound rate, and he drew fouls like he did in college: power takes into the paint that drew contact upon his 7’2 wingspan, and as many jumps as required on the offensive glass to get a whistle.

Tari made his college FTs (80%) and posted 34% from 3 and 74% FT as a rookie, good enough to positively contribute given everything else he does. His form, with a longer load time, is not conducive to a ton of off the dribble shotmaking, but with his length and FT drawing, he will not have trouble scoring efficiently.

Among wing prospects I have scouted, no one allows so little and claims so much whistle to whistle as Tari. Every NBA team, particularly a young team like Houston, has two internal competitions: one for minutes and one for usage. Tari claimed his minutes last year. Usage will take longer, but a foul drawer like Tari will steadily rise as a constant finishing threat: off dribble, spotting up, cutting, and rebounding. When Amen Thompson eventually juices their transition game, Tari will be there, stride for tireless stride.

Maybe you like Tari, but you feel like Houston has too many players and Tari will settle into a valuable supporting role. That’s reasonable. But the Rockets, and the rest of the league, does not have anyone who looks and plays like Tari. The closest may be OG Anunoby, and even he does not match this man’s energy.

If there is any justice in the world, All Star voters will eventually reward the 15/9/2/2/1.5 lines Tari will throw up while providing All-Defense chops. The Rockets will have to be very good for him to get the recognition. As we will see shortly, I believe in their talent to get there.

Tier 3: Multi All Star/Fringe All NBA Ceilings. Consensus Draft Value: 3-5. Eventual Yearly Contract value: $30m-$35m

This tier is exclusive to top 5 picks, players who have already demonstrated clear positive value with room for substantial growth, or both. Talents are getting special enough that All Star recognition is more likely. If enough goes right in constructing rosters around these players, an All-NBA appearance or two is possible.

If some of these profiles seem critical, it is only because we are nearing the very top, where minor distinctions among monster talents tend to matter much more to winning and losing. Enjoy…

15. Scottie Barnes (Draft slot: 4th, 2021. My rank at the time: 14th.)

Scottie has ridden the narrative rollercoaster in his first two years. His rookie of the year campaign, which saw a surge through February and March, led to some overly rosy projections about his future in the league. Evan Mobley was my ROY pick, but Barnes was certainly deserving; 15/7.5/3.5 with nearly two steals+blocks a game as a starter on a playoff team should get that award more often than not.

His numbers in year 2 were largely similar, but the degradation of the team’s vibes and record has swung the pendulum on Scottie a bit too far. He cannot “guard 1-5,” always one of the most overused plaudits each draft spring. Quicker players give him trouble on the ball, and his footwork and reads in Nick Nurse’s aggressive, show-hard and recover scheme, need(ed) a lot of improvement. But Scottie still has a 7’3 wingspan, possesses a very strong frame, and can lope into the lane or punish smaller wings in the post for repeatable touch buckets.

Scottie’s test case for an All-NBA role begins this season under Darko Rajakovic, as the Raptors are widely expected to give Barnes more usage as their initiating point forward. Like Josh Giddey, Barnes’ passing vision has always been his signature feature, but unlike his draftmate, Barnes will get a chance at the full controls. Barnes has the physical presence and ethic to dictate a game on each side, especially if used more wisely on defense in a more conservative scheme.

I have my reservations about Barnes ability’ to nudge the Raptors into the top 15 when so many initiators are efficient scorers and Barnes has yet to hit league average efficiency himself. But as a positive player from the minute he stepped on an NBA floor and a burgeoning triple double threat, Scottie has earned the benefit of the doubt.

14. Walker Kessler (Draft slot: 22nd, 2022. My rank at the time: 25th.)

Along with Reaves, Walker Kessler is the player that the NBA was most wrong in evaluating in his draft year. Kessler was a legendary shot blocker (the best collegian in at least 20 years) at North Carolina and Auburn and anchored the Tigers to what was for long stretches the best defense in the country. But since this 7’1 center played like a traditional center, the NBA viewed him as a replaceable sort not worth a lottery pick.⁷

Kessler’s shot blocking is not just the product of his frame; if it were, all 7 footers would swat 3 shots a game and he really would be replaceable. Kessler’s timing on when to reach for blocks is exquisite, and he can get them from everywhere: defending the post, tracking a driver in pick and roll, recovering when beat on the perimeter, or helping along the baseline. Kessler will always be a rim runner on offense, but he is not a black hole. As with his blocks, he has a knack for timing on the offensive glass, cuts out of the dunker spot, and passes out of the short roll.

He might sell out for blocks a bit when he locks in on a driver, leaving dump off lanes open. But as with Jalen Duren, I have little doubt that Kessler will iron that out as he gets to his prime. I am much more impressed by Kessler’s discipline in generally not biting for pump fakes and using his chest nearly as effectively as his arms in protecting the rim. Established physical bigs such as Domantas Sabonis were given no quarter by Walker, and it gives me optimism that sometime down the line he can credibly defend the best 7 footers in the league in the most important moments.

The Jazz were demonstrably better on defense with Kessler on the floor and did not give much away on offense. Their starting unit, including Kessler at center, outscored opponents, an incredibly rare feat for a rookie big to achieve. A great defensive anchor and lob threat tends to have a synergistic effect on the rest of the roster. Passing reads become easier for young guards (Keyonte George). Defensive miscues in young guards and wings (KG, Brice Sensabaugh) are more easily forgiven when the big fella erases them. There is less identity crisis in how the team wants to play on either end, but especially on defense. More defined roles tend to breed more confidence in execution, crucial for a team with as many darts as Utah. Walker is a keystone to their growth and will likely accelerate it.

Any All-NBA path for Walker Kessler assumes all-defense and eventually DPOY level play. When he blocks nearly 200 shots one season, voters will note have much of a choice.

13. Trey Murphy III (Draft slot: 17th, 2021. My rank at the time: 5th.)⁸

Trey holds a place near and dear to my heart. His evaluation was my most successful relative to the NBA and scouting community, and he was gracious enough to appear on my podcast a year ago before his Year 2 breakout. So, if I have a bias on this list, it points most strongly toward Trey.

Thankfully, if there is a player to be biased toward, Mr. 50/40/90 is a pretty good candidate. Murphy is no worse than the 2nd or 3rd best young wing shooter in the NBA. His C&S has limitless range, with his smooth, compact mechanics resembling one of those robots programmed to make infinite consecutive free throws. Some may prefer shooters who can hit off movement as well and they can C&S, but 3p shooting does not include boosters for degree of difficulty. Trey’s 7’0 wingspan and 6’9+ frame makes sprinting off of screens and squaring his shoulders in the air both impractical and practically unnecessary. His release point ensures his shot does not get blocked and he rarely looks bothered.

Trey can attack and dunk off assists with the best of them and could assuredly make a ton of money by averaging around 20 a game on hyperefficient, relatively low shot volume. But to get into All-NBA territory, he will need to expand his usage off the dribble.

Ability is not the concern; Trey’s efficiency (14.5 ppg on only 10 shots) belies his unselfishness. When he has been granted the chance to drive, he has used his length for wraparound interior passes and dumpoffs when the defense commits to prevent a finish. Trey’s mechanics are more suited to C&S than midrange pullup, but his touch at his size is world class. If given expanded chances on the ball, his talent would take over and he could approach 25 ppg on high efficiency.

But the New Orleans Pelicans as currently constituted seem unlikely to give him the reps that would both help Trey and the team long term. Zion, Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum already monopolize most of the team’s usage. It took injuries to Zion and Ingram for the coaching staff even lean into Murphy’s talent a little bit. Ingram and Trey are both taller, skinnier wings, and neither profiles to defend guards on the perimeter. That leaves them as both hybrid 3/4s, which crashes right into Zion’s 4-only assignment.

Trey can be a successful rotational defender at PF or SF who parlays his hops into weakside rim protection. He already has a knack for finding deflections despite unpolished rotational footwork. Given his nuclear offensive efficiency, that can be good enough for a title winning team. But barring further injury or trade (something the Pels should be forced to consider with Brandon Ingram this year, say for a Myles Turner type), Murphy’s ascent is still tied to a parachute.

12. Amen Thompson (Draft slot: 4th, 2023. My rank at the time: 3rd.)

11. Jalen Green (Draft slot: 2nd, 2021. My rank at the time: 3rd.)

10. Alperen Sengun (Draft slot: 16th, 2021. My rank at the time: 20th.)⁹

The Rockets have the most young talent in the league. Unfortunately, they are still only granted access to the one basketball each game. Fred VanVleet is their short term starting point guard, max player, and offensive initiator. So, the first step in projecting these exceptional talents is figuring out who is best suited to help and be helped by FVV. Out of these three,¹⁰ I believe most strongly in Sengun.

For all his gifts, FVV struggles to score around the basket and inside the arc. Whoever is most adept at weaponizing the paint and manipulating halfcourt defenses will develop chemistry rather organically as Fred looks both for a safety valve and a passing partner to garner himself easier looks.

Enter Sengun, by far the best passer and most creative paint scorer on the team. As a 20 year old he just recorded roughly 15 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals+blocks a game. He did so on nearly 60% TS, well above league average. No big at that age should be able to come up with that kind of production on that efficiency, especially given what a mess the Rockets’ guard rotation was.

Sengun is among the most informative, delightful watches in the NBA. His flexibility, footwork, and vision are a wonder. He menus shoulder fakes, pivots, reverse pivots, reposts, spins over either shoulder and drop steps with either foot, often in succession and in unpredictable ways. Defenders are frequently at his mercy, and that is before Sengun uses his shoulder flexibility and vision for audacious, irresistible interior passes. Sengun is a savant begging for a consistent lineup around him to get on his wavelength.

He will start despite Houston’s best attempts to lure Brook Lopez in free agency to stabilize their defense. Defense has always been Sengun’s question given is 6’10ish frame and slowish feet. But a mind as beautiful as Senny’s, coupled with his pliability, frequently leads to his hands being in the right spot much more quickly and more frequently than one might assume. Not unlike how a Finals MVP in Denver manufacturers defensive value, albeit in a bigger frame, Senny should find himself more middle of the pack than liability in his prime. His offense will not quite reach Jokic or Embiid’s heights, but every other center will be in his sights. On that side of the ball, many are already in his wake.

Jalen Green’s shot diet will be both prioritized and heavily scrutinized by Houston’s coaching staff. He is such a talented scorer that he can take detours in how to attack off the dribble without finding what his meal ticket should be. Call it the Curse of the Gifted. Green has not yet developed much consistency in PnR or in his timing on drives. He tends to play sped up off the dribble and does not have an elegant sense for when to shoot his 3 off the dribble. And yet, Green has still scored 30 points 24 times and 40 points 5 times in two seasons. FVV and Sengun should not be subtracting shots of Green’s; they should be curating them, giving Green plenty of easy money on C&S, slashes off the catch, and either guard-guard or guard-big screens to open up driving lanes. When they do, All Star selections will be commonplace for Green.

Amen is somehow more athletic than Jalen Green, than his brother, and everyone else on this list. He is the most explosive young wing in the NBA. As discussed in the Ausar Thompson section, Amen has a more direct path to stardom because he operates on the ball as a point wing. With processing on par with Ausar and athleticism on par with no one, Amen will be able to put his fingerprints all over a given game, getting to the paint at will, spraying passes to efficient scorers, securing triple doubles, and hounding opposing guards and wings all over the court.

Amen’s jumper is in worse shape than Ausar’s, arguably the worst of any perimeter player in the league. Amen faces his own Curse of the Gifted, though of a different stripe than Jalen. Amen has so much basketball talent in his passing vision, defense, and attacking that he will never have to worry about securing big minutes or a lucrative second contract. His jumper will not need to drastically improve for Amen to have a very successful NBA career.

Ausar has to shoot because if he doesn’t, he’s a bench player. There is a different level of urgency that comes with one’s livelihood on the line. I believe Ausar’s jumper is in better shape now in part because he has played off of Amen and has had to shoot to keep defenses honest, even in OTE.

I do not doubt Amen’s work ethic for a second. After all, I think he might make an All NBA-Team someday; I am more curious as to where and how he applies that ethic. Will he (and the Rockets) focus on making Amen a palatable off ball option for FVV? If so, that’s a long way to go in two years before FVV’s team option, and it could lead to some frustration. It is tempting to assume Amen will be a good backup point guard in short order before graduating to the starting lineup, but it does not always work that way. Backups need to hit their jumpers just as starters do; at some level, Amen needs the freedom to make some mistakes. With picks heading to OKC, Houston may not be in such a patient mood.

The best version of a non-shooting Amen will still rack counting stats and put on shows in the regular season. But it may not drive winning as much as Rockets fans would like.

9. Chet Holmgren (Draft slot: 2nd, 2022. My rank at the time: 2nd.)

Chet’s role in OKC is much more secure than TMIII’s in New Orleans, but there is a similar question of usage intertwined with ceiling. In a vacuum, Chet is a great front court complement is SGA. Chet has defensive timing on weakside rotations close to Jaren Jackson or Evan Mobley, but with shooting touch much closer to the former than the latter. An All-NBA case given that toolkit is not difficult to make.

Like many modern blue chip bigs, Chet thinks of himself as a perimeter attacker putting slow footed 5s in a blender. When one of his pump and go drives or spins in the lanes work, it looks easy. Not many people with a 7’4+ wingspan can handle, gather, and rise up for jumpers, let alone hit them like Chet can.

As you may have noticed, Chet is quite skinny. He will always be quite skinny, and in light of his foot injury that cost him last season, I expect OKC to play him alongside a burlier big, likely Jaylin Williams, quite a bit. And while that will weaponize his exceptional weakside timing, it places him into a bucket of NBA PFs where his novelty faces a harsher reality.

Defensive wings are less enamored with exaggerated pump fakes and recover more quickly than bigs. They punish long, loping dribbles more consistently with deflections and steals. On the other end, a wing starter’s first step puts more pressure on Chet’s feet. Chet has spent his life baiting post ups from thicker players wanting to test him. He has all kinds of tricks to make those shots inefficient without (obviously) fouling. There are fewer solutions to guarding NBA wings on the ball in space except to recover like hell when beaten. Chet can do that with his length, but I do not expect him to be a switch defender on the level of JJJ or Mobley, and ultimately view him as a lesser defensive prospect than either.

That’s okay, and again, his skillset is rare enough that All-NBA is certainly on the table. Without All-Defense appearances, it just puts a bit more pressure on Chet’s offensive game. Frankly, that game will likely take a backseat to SGA and Jalen Williams (and at times, Josh Giddey). SGA and Jalen threaten defenses more easily and more consistently at each level of the floor. Chet can shoot, but he is not trigger happy enough to be a high volume 3p shooter. Does it make sense to tilt the offense around Chet DHOs at the expense of SGA pick and rolls with a better screen setter like Jay Williams?

The good news is that Chet likely does not care about any of that, wired to win as psychotically as he is. OKC’s future includes plenty of All-NBA selections. Chet will be able to measure his success in playoff victories sooner rather than later.

8. Cade Cunningham (Draft slot: 1st, 2021. My rank at the time: 2nd.)

Usually, number 1 overall picks are physical marvels. For whatever you think about the impact of their given careers, it’s no secret that Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony towns, Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz, Deandre Ayton, Zion Williamson, Anthony Edwards, Paolo Banchero, and Victor Wembenyama all look exceptional moving around on a basketball court.

That’s why Cade Cunningham, a wing-sized point guard with an average first step and unremarkable, solid measurables, has been so flummoxing. He may be the first number 1 pick in decades whose most effective attributes on the floor are his brain and the smoothness of his fit into any roster. Cade can diagnose any opposing scheme instantaneously and anticipate where the cracks will materialize. He can, and always does, make any textbook pass at good angles with his 7-foot wingspan. He switches defensively on a variety of players 1-4 while rotating on time off the ball. His natural leadership qualities are palpable in how he communicates and distributes.

Cade has played 76 career games across two seasons, affecting a game’s pace without controlling it. He has the numbers of a young primary scorer (close to 18/6/6 thus far as a 20/21 year-old) without sniffing the efficiency needed to justify the usage. Valid reasons aplenty can help explain his slow start, mostly having to do with injuries and a lack of spacing.

But this season will be telling. Cade’s issues with turnovers and creating space to score smoothly are pretty explicitly chained to his pedestrian NBA athleticism. Limited burst loosens his handle for swiping hands. His shot release is a tad slow and out in front of his face, which is hard to weaponize in the halfcourt when there is always a man contesting it. He hits his FTs but has not yet figured a way to pressure defenses downhill to the point where he draws the fouls in the first place. A noncontact shin fracture in Year 2 does not exactly project forthcoming athletic leaps.

There is a real chance that everyone, myself included, flatly misevaluated Cade as a top 2 draft talent when he is closer to picks 5-8. The league may just demand too much scoring athleticism from its stars for Cade to join. But I am still optimistic that Cade can reach multiple All Star games, and maybe an All NBA team, when he fine-tunes his approach on and off the ball. Cade should be a very effective C&S threat, and Jalen Duren (as a screener), Jaden Ivey (as a downhill threat), and Ausar Thompson (as a cutter and connector) can all make Cade’s looks much easier.

A young squad of unique talents requires chemistry, creativity, and sacrifice to find equilibrium. Trust in Cunningham to create that environment and emerge as its star.

7. Paolo Banchero (Draft slot: 1st, 2022. My rank at the time: 4th.)

I wrote about Paolo extensively before the 2022 draft and my feelings have changed slightly, but not much.

Paolo is a good passer, a high-effort (if only average impact) defensive prospect, and a very good scorer, especially when it comes to drawing FTs. When he faces an undisciplined defensive paint or when his OTD jumper is falling, Paolo looks as good or better than any young player in the league. My only concern is whether his touch is truly good enough to make his many midrange jumpers worth the trouble.

Efficiency is the ultimate judge of every high-volume player in the league. Paolo was not terribly efficient at Duke or as a rookie in Orlando. He wasn’t awful by any stretch, and there are allowances for translating to the league at high usage, at getting a little nicked up last year, etc. But Paolo loves shooting off the dribble in the midrange. Loves it. A leap in that area needs to come sooner rather than later because his 3 point and FT numbers (low 30s, low 70s respectively through college and Year 1) have not suggested to me an above average distance shooter.

When a high pick wing does not project to be a very good shooter, teams usually have two options to maximize their value: either make them an initiating point wing or play them at small 5. The Magic have re-signed Markelle Fultz and drafted both Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black in the top 6 since 2021, so Point Paolo is likely not materializing in big minutes anytime soon.

The FIBA USA team has leaned into giving him minutes at center, and Paolo has flashed great offensive possessions in that role because well, duh. Wendell Carter Jr. notwithstanding, the Magic would do well to give him an extended look there this year. Paolo will struggle defensively since he lacks center length and has been a forward his whole life, but he can do so well in offensive mismatches that he makes the math work.

My main desire is for the Magic to pick a lane for Paolo. Priority number 1 for any front office is always to put their best darts in a position to succeed. The Magic drafted Jett Howard at 11 but their spacing around Paolo and Franz Wagner will still be wanting. My expectation is that they still think these two can excel as a true wing tandem, but I question whether the roster is doing that tandem favors. They need to play Paolo double digit minutes at the 5 each game and see what they have. If they do not, they risk wasting the majority of the rookie deal of their highest pick.

Tier 2: Multiple All-NBA Ceilings. Consensus Draft Value: 1-3. Eventual Yearly Contract value: Max

Clickbait allegations aside,¹¹ the value in projecting all of these players is to approach a better understanding of what I believe matters most on the court and why. Any granular analysis of a promising young player can yield excitable optimism. If I bury myself in Jaden Ivey tape, I will convince myself I have found a future MVP candidate. That’s the fun of doing this work.

But focusing so minutely on one player does not make them any better than anyone else. What makes a player better is consistent improvement at the skills that will matter the most over the next ten years. Even if the following players or order thereof seems bizarre, the skills I value in them are not. It’s basketball, after all: you relentlessly pursue good shots on offense and relentlessly pursue taking them away on defense.

If there is one commonality in these five, it’s that the capacity for improvement is robust. Each player has so much already going for them and is so well aligned to get better in the right ways that I feel confident in their primes being the most lucrative and valuable in the oncoming NBA. That is, until we get to number 1.

6. Jalen Williams (Draft slot: 12th, 2022. My rank at the time: 17th.)

Recency bias, thy name is Chuck. It would have to be, right? After all, Jalen Williams flaunts all the traditional rules about projecting future stars. He has played one NBA season and is already 22. He was not on the NBA’s radar until his 3rd college season, which came at a mid-major university (Santa Clara). He is unlikely ever to be a number one option since he will be playing alongside Shai Gilgeous Alexander for the next decade. So where do I get the darts chucking JW into All NBA discussions?

Well, I watch the ball. More specifically, I watch it go into the hoop when Jalen shoots it. Jalen had 14.5 points per game with a 2:1 ATO on over 60% true shooting. In more traditional terms, he shot nearly 58% from inside the arc on nearly 8 shots per game from inside the arc (and 35% from 3, and 81% from the line).

Here are rookie guards who shot over 54% (Jalen was at 57.9) from 2 on over seven shots per game (JW: 7.9) in the last 10 years:

Jalen Williams and no one else.¹²

‘So what?” you might say. “Jalen was an older rookie. And likely benefited from some luck!”

Now, here is where we can have some fun. Let’s look at all guards drafted in the last 10 years who crossed those thresholds not as rookies, but at any time in their career to date:

Devin Booker

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Luka Doncic

Donovan Mitchell

DeAaron Fox

Tyrese Haliburton

Jaylen Brown

Zach Lavine

Jalen Brunson

Malcolm Brogdon

Gary Harris

More than half of that list has already made an All NBA team. The only two who have no chance of doing so are Brogdon and Harris, both of whom have been plagued by injury. Harris crossed the threshold once, playing off of Nikola Jokic. Were Brogdon more durable, he may well have been an All Star by now.

So, we know we are dealing with a a very, very high floor. Jalen’s build and dimensions are among the best on that list. Strong as an ox and sporting a 7’2” wingspan, Jalen has the processing to both pass efficiently and switch defensively. He may not have incredible burst, but he has enough handle to get to his spots and bump his way to looks he does not miss.

All-NBA tends to reward usage monsters, so maybe I am a tad optimistic. But look at how Jaylen Brown has made his teams: by steadily complementing a superstar on a team built with exceptional draft assets that is good for 50+ wins each year. Williams is a better offensive talent than Brown, and OKC has more draft equity than even those mid 2010s Celtics did.

There may be valid debates about placing Jalen relative to some of the names behind him “in a vacuum.” How would Paolo look in OKC? Or Cade Cunningham? They’d probably look quite good, though neither combines length and touch the way Jalen does. But this exercise is about projecting what will happen, not what would be really cool if things were different.

Jalen is on the league’s best team to grow on, with the best young superstar to grow with. Enjoy the show.

5. Scoot Henderson (Draft slot: 3rd, 2023. My rank at the time: 2nd.)

Conveniently enough, Scoot will likely find himself on that 2p% list above sometime in the next five years. His ability to use his dribble, gather, and suddenness (both in acceleration and deceleration) set up easy layups is the best I have personally scouted in 4 cycles of doing this work. And alongside Cunningham, his understanding of game tempo and defensive coverages is the best of any guard listed in this article. Not many young players are worthy of receiving “the keys” to an NBA offense that is trying to contend. Within a few years, Scoot will be.

The most persistent knock on Scoot is his 3p shooting, and I expect that problem to persist in the short term. Scoot has exceptional core strength and will not have much of an issue getting his shot off. But like Paolo, he favors the midrange, and his journey to efficient jumpers will likely start there and expand out.

As defenses go under picks in Scoot’s first couple of years, it will become increasingly apparent that the recipe for an All-NBA season is not unlike DeAaron Fox’s has been: find a big man to set great picks, consistently vacate the paint, and split initiating duties so that Scoot can get easy looks both off the dribble and off assists.

Until then, Scoot may *appear* to be a disappoint. Though an eager defender of guards and quite strong, Scoot is short and there just is not much impact for a small guard to make these days unless scoring at near nuclear efficiency. But make no mistake, it will come together for Scoot. The NBA’s talent pool is so deep that the right big will arrive in Portland, even if by accident. When he does, Henderson will slay giants.

4. Jabari Smith Jr. (Draft slot: 3rd, 2022. My rank at the time: 1st.)

We are in the endgame now. I was as high as can be on Jabari in 2022, and despite a lackluster rookie season in Houston, he is still my favorite prospect from that draft. It certainly takes some faith after a rookie season where Jabari barely shot 40% from the field and 30% from 3. Believing him a surefire future All star and nigh unstoppable wing scorer requires a dive into the context he endured in Year 1 and the context that awaits him now.

His context last year stunk. To the high heavens, it stunk. At Auburn, Jabari was not an initiator by any means, but the team had the good sense to lean into his scoring tools: the high release at 6’11, the incredibly consistent shot mechanics, and the ability to mix in jab steps and shoulder fakes in isolation to draw fouls. In Houston, Jabari was given very few possessions to actually seek his own shot and get comfortable. Coach Stephen Silas admitted that not only did he not prioritize Jabari, he never ran a single play for him.

At a certain level, limiting the midrange isolation possessions Smith favored in college is understandable given where the NBA, and particularly the Rockets organization, has been offensively for some time. But in practice, Houston cut off their nose to spite their face. Hitting on a high draft pick means putting that pick in comfortable positions on the floor. Instead, Houston just sat Jabari on the outside of the arc and told him to catch and shoot.

That sounds simple enough, especially given that Jabari canned 42% of his college 3s on nearly 200 attempts. But those stationary looks depend on comfort, rhythm, and routine. A player needs to know when to expect the ball. Given the Rockets guard play last year, worst in the NBA by a mile, Jabari never got the opportunity to find his footing.

And yet, while his overall percentages were poor, Jabari nonetheless bucked a couple of rookie narratives to end on high note. First, he started 79 games (force fed starts, to be sure, but durability is durability), and led all rookies in minutes. He was 3rd in rebounds (Walker Kessler and Jalen Duren), and led all non-centers. He was 2nd in blocks (Kessler). And he was 2nd in made 3s (Keegan Murray).

His last 20 games, a full quarter of the season, was much more efficient than his first 60: 15.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.5 A:TO, 47/36/78 shooting splits. Rather than hit a rookie wall, Jabari scaled it. He did so while being the youngest regular starter in the NBA and was pretty clearly playing with a strength deficiency that will resolve in time. He accepted tough defensive matchups and occasionally flashed hard, like when he played 36 minutes as a +13 matched against Giannis Antetokounmpo and held him to under 20 points in a 5-point win. In two Summer League games and finally free to attack in his preferred spots, Jabari established himself as the best player to suit up in Vegas, which included the number 1 player on this list.

I have already touched on the Rockets’ roster jumble, but Jabari’s starting role is assured. He can slide with the vast majority of wings in the league and a good portion of the guards. He will moonlight at the 5 as he gets stronger. I am not sure FVV and Dillon Brooks will gift Jabari the right kind of touches right away this year, but I trust that hierarchy to work itself out over the next two years. Houston will need to find physical advantages in the halfcourt, and Jabari’s midrange faceup game will steadily claim more usage. It helps that Houston’s vets will love Smith. Jabari (and Tari Eason) is so committed to effort and physical improvement that his numbers will have no choice but to steadily follow suit.

The question that comes with this ranking is how high Jabari can really go if he does not develop substantial pick and roll chops. It’s a fair question, but I project Jabari to approach 24 points and 10 rebounds per game while “just missing” several All-Defense teams. Modern fours, from JJJ to Evan Mobley to Paolo, tend to be weighted more heavily toward one side of the floor, with strengths extreme enough to win the necessary math. Jabari will be more balanced across the board, and as the best shooter of that bunch, should provide a very high floor for a high-ceilinged Rockets core. When Houston finally actualizes their considerable talent, accolades will follow.

3. Franz Wagner (Draft slot: 8th, 2021. My rank at the time: 12th.)

There is not much mystery to Franz Wagner’s game. He plays off the dribble at 6’10, can make shots from everywhere, and has been growing more confident as a driver and primary scorer since his first month in the league.

Having been a connector as a youth prospect, Franz’s passing and overall timing have always been excellent, particularly as a gap filling and nail defender. He is an easy positive on both sides of the ball, frequently anchoring a good defense when he shared the floor with Wendell Carter Jr.

You would think that an efficient 20/4/4 as a 21 year old would get him his flowers, but Franz seems to take a backseat to many players, including his teammate Paolo Banchero, that he does not deserve.

We can point to the usual reasons for Franz’s predicament: he was not a hyped youth prospect, he was drafted 8th while his team drafted another player ahead of him in his own draft (Jalen Suggs) and then Paolo 1st overall the next year, etc. But I think there is an aesthetic bias at play as well.

Franz outstretches rather than overpowers, hitting release points on his jumpers and layups reminiscent of the other 6’10 young star playmaker in the Eastern Conference, Jayson Tatum. Franz is indeed more comfortable driving all the way to the hoop and playmaking at the same age than Tatum was. But Tatum had the advantage of not only a high draft slot, but instant relevance on very good-to-great teams. If anything, Tatum has had to deal with expectations that are too high rather than too low.

Well, allow me to set expectations appropriately for Mr. Wagner. Like Tatum, he will steadily add core strength as he enters his second contract, which will juice both his rebounding and FT numbers. He will become more adept at absorbing contact rather than avoiding or bouncing off of it. A 25/7/5 line is entirely reasonable within two years as the Magic inch their way toward a top 6 seed. And folks will slowly realize that Franz’s lanky shotmaking translates from matchup to matchup, playoff series to playoff series, provided the Magic finally figure out how to fill out their roster.

2. Evan Mobley (Draft slot: 3rd, 2021. My rank at the time: 1st.)

It is easy to project accolades for a 2nd year player who has received them already. A 2022 first team All-Defense selection, Evan Mobley came close to making off with DPOY as a 21 year old, which would have made him the youngest recipient ever.

His 2nd place finish was well-earned given that the Cavs sported the NBA’s best defense and that by the end of the year, Mobley was their best defensive player. His footwork and communication are excellent no matter what the Cavs ask him to do, and he gradually assumed more minutes as center as the year wore on. In his first season and a half, the Cavs were worse on defense when Mobley played at 5 and Jarrett Allen sat. By the end of last season, their numbers were even, a testament both to Mobley’s rapid improvement and freakish ceiling. Very few players each decade come along with Mobley’s defensive talent. The fact that he’s seven feet tall with a 7’5 wingspan makes him among the most complete defensive players in the league already. Ten All-Defense selections are not out of the question.

Of course, the NBA is increasingly an offensive game, and that side of the ball will matter more and more in determining who wins. It’s a good thing then that Mobley increased his shooting inside the arc from 54% as a rookie to 59% as a sophomore, a giant jump in efficiency that speaks to his touch around the basket and the ease with which he can elevate from 12 feet and in to finish. The Cavs’ spacing issues are well-documented, and it makes it more impressive that Mobley has done nothing but get better and develop chemistry with the Cavs’ guards (and Allen) since stepping on the floor.

The Knicks muscled the Cavs out of the playoffs. Criticism, including of Mobley and his lack of perimeter aggression, was warranted. Mobley only got up around 9 shots a game in that series, down from 12 per game in the regular season in fewer minutes. Many other factors decided the series,¹³ but there was certainly an awakening as to how much more aggressive Mobley needed to be.

But as frequently happens, discussion around Mobley in the series aftermath trended toward what he does not do (shoot 3s, dominate the ball, etc) rather than what he does. It is worth repeating that the only players among the 125 in this article to start playoff series by age 21 are Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes. Many will join them, but Mobley’s effect on winning is obvious to those watching.

Mobley has never been a ball dominant player and given how much Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell thrive in PnR, he is unlikely to become the Cavs’ number 1 option anytime soon. He may never be a threat from 3. But his talent in blowing by practically any big while anchoring the paint on the other end is begging for an increased role at center.

Mobley’s passing talent (either as a DHO operator or on the move), which has made lemonade thus far in an imperfect double-big pairing, could make beautiful music in a lineup flush with shooting. With due respect to Max Strus and Georges Niang (good signings), the Cavs’ task is to find starting level wings who can shoot around Mobley at center. Maybe it comes through the draft, or maybe through a Donovan Mitchell trade. But when it happens, not only will All-NBA recognition follow, but the Cavs will return to the NBA Finals. Led by Evan Mobley.

Tier 1: Multiple MVP Ceiling. Consensus Draft Value: 1. Eventual Yearly Contract value: Max

1. Victor Wembanyama (Draft slot: 1st, 2023. My rank at the time: 1st.)

The closer we get to Victor Wembanyama’s official debut, the more patience I am building with which to approach his first couple of seasons.

As I wrote pre-draft, Wembanyama does not project to have much of the common qualities among the last generation’s inner circle Hall of Famers. He will not be as strong as Giannis, Jokic, Kawhi, or centers of yore, as twitchily athletic as Garnett or Kobe or Jordan or Lebron, and he does not project to offensively control the game from horn to horn in an era of hyper-efficient guard play.

The good news, apart from the physical dimensions Wemby does have, is that the Spurs know all of this. They know that Victor is most threatening attacking the basket facing up and drawing fouls. They know that his shooting touch is tremendous for a seven footer. They know that for Wemby to excel as an on-ball scorer, as all Finals MVPs have to do, he must spend years adding strength and diagnosing defensive coverages to withstand the pounding the role demands.

Wembanyama played alongside a center in Summer League and will likely do so for his first couple of years. That is also the appropriate course, both to save wear and tear and to keep him on the court gaining reps and away from foul trouble. Many see Wembanyama and assume he will be All-Defense immediately. While I will not rule that out, Wemby’s footwork is not as polished as Evan Mobley’s. He relies on recovery rather than anticipation, and he will not reach his full form as a defensive anchor until that process reverses. It all takes time.

In the meantime, Wembanyama will be a very good player, even an All Star, as he adds strength and figures his game out. That’s how talented he is. But I suspect that his early career will be a useful reminder that player development demands some patience. That the road to Finals MVP includes some setbacks, and that the gratification is sweeter when a gifted player is forced to tweak their game and body, year after year and summer after summer.

I thank you for your patience in reading my stuff. Please enjoy basketball.

1. Consider Jaime Jaquez and his role as a “centerpiece” in Damian Lillard negotiations. Jaquez spent 4 years at UCLA as a big, physical forward who could pass off the dribble, score in the paint, and defend different sizes of players. Known for his competitiveness and intellect, Jaquez distinguished himself in workouts as someone who could play right away. He seems to have enjoyed a projection bump from landing in Miami, where the Heat, in a faintly 00s Spursy way, seem to have convinced folks that if they draft someone, that player must be underrated.

In his 4 years, Jaquez shot 3s well one time (at low volume, when no fans appeared in the stands). He shot under 75% FT over 4 years. He was always a good but never quite dominant defender. One might squint and see a starter here, but “squinting” can mean a lot in opportunity cost when Dame hangs in the balance. In my opinion, the Blazers are correctly skeptical of Miami’s Jaquez-centric offer.

2. By contrast, Ivey drove into the paint first and figured it out later, rifling 100mph pellets to somewhat unsuspecting teammates. Both approaches can be effective. I have Ivey a bit higher and I will explain why. But there is a beauty to watching a maestro at work.

3. Some career 3p/FT splits: Dillon Brooks: 34/80. RJ Barrett: 34/71. Dejounte Murray: 34/78. Aaron Gordon: 33/69. Marcus Smart: 32/78. One combined All Star appearance in that group. In OTE, Ausar shot 30/66.

4. Paul George, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Trey Murphy III, etc.

5. Hence my pretentious phrasing of “D & 3” wings.

6. By 3 points per 100 in over 500 minutes, a very good sample given the Rockets’ mess. When Tari & Sengun shared the court without teenaged Jabari Smith Jr (369 minutes), the lowly Rockets outscored opponents by nearly 8 points per 100!

7. In fairness, I ranked him 25th myself. I had Kessler in the lottery for most of the season and psyched myself out. So it goes.

8. Trey would appear higher if not for his recent and incredibly crappy meniscus injury. Willie Green is a slow coach to make rotational adjustments, and I have my doubts that Trey’s reintegration this season will be smooth. Trey may well need to earn his starter minutes all over again coming off injury in January.

9. Unfortunately, I may have violated my own sacred rankings for the sake of expedience. Two of these Rockets may well reside in the top 10 in my heart of hearts. But since they are all close enough, let’s cover them simultaneously. I hope you have appreciated my brevity.

10. We still have Jabari Smith, Jr. to get to in the next tier. Unsurprisingly, he is the best fit alongside Houston’s veterans.

11. I’m innocent.

12. The non-guard rookies to accomplish the feat while starting 30 games: Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley (2021), Zion Williams (2019), Jaren Jackson Jr. and Deandre Ayton (2018), Ben Simmons (2017), and Karl Anthony-Towns (2015).

13. e.g., Mitch Robinson soundly outplaying Jarrett Allen and JB Bickerstaff leaving Darius Garland on an island against Jalen Brunson. The Cavs were essentially even with Mobley on the floor.