2024 NBA Draft Dart Board: Understanding Value and the Truth About Wings
One of the hardest drafts to sort in recent memory reveals truths about the NBA's challenge to contextualize wing prospects in a wing-stuffed league.
You enjoy basketball, yes?
I do too. My name is Chuck. On my podcast, the Chucking Darts NBA and Draft Podcast, I talk about the NBA, its draft, and the relationship between the two in building championships. The goal of the podcast, besides quality of conversation, is to figure out predictive truths about the league and its draft. To make the draft less of the dice roll, random walk, or (ahem) dart throw than NBA teams would have you believe that it is.
Below are my thoughts on the top 32 players in this year’s draft, with rankings out to 71. These are not skill based scouting reports that you can find on my podcast, but quick impressions on how the player stands to add value in a ruthlessly efficient NBA. For the top 30, I have included relevant physical measurements and several areas in which they will add value. Offensive roles are pre-semi colon; defensive roles are post semi-colon.
Tier 1: Projected Starters with All Star Paths
Zach Edey, 22 years old. 7’5, 299 lbs, 7’10+ WS, 9’7 standing reach. Volume Scorer, FT Machine, Screen Playmaker, Offensive Rebound Vortex; Defensive Rebound Vortex, jDrop Coverage deterrent.
Ron Holland, 18 years old. 6’7+, 6’10.25 WS, 38” max vert. Relentless driver, FT generator, Connective Playmaker; Defensive playmaker, 2-3 position switch defender, POA defender.
Reed Sheppard, 20 years old. 6’3, 32.5” standing vert, 42” max vert. Gravity Shooter, Connective playmaker, Transition Pusher; Defensive Playmaker, Space closer.
Isaiah Collier, 19 years old. 6’3+, 6’4.75 WS. Relentless Driver, Volume Playmaker, FT generator; POA Defender, Switch Defender.
As you may have heard, the NBA is obsessed with “wings,” and has been for some time now. Putting to the side the issue of what constitutes a wing in an ever-shifting landscape (is Zach Lavine a wing anymore? what about Julius Randle? Austin Reaves? Jalen Suggs? GG Jackson?), it is helpful to remember why teams consider wings so precious.
It is not because they are, by definition, better players than Bam Adebayo, Domantas Sabonis, Tyrese Maxey, Jalen Brunson, and countless other “oddly sized” stars. Often, teams seek wings because they project defensive versatility onto them. Mikal Bridges or OG Anunoby on his own might struggle to carry a franchise to the playoffs, but each can play alongside and assist a much better player without demanding much accomodation of their own. They simplify.
In draft circles, the allure of “simplification” is a dangerous one. Drafting is difficult business, one that many front offices may still insist is mostly random. And so, if there is a wing who even suggests the whiff of defensive versatility, GMs will spring at the chance to select them. In a wing-stuffed league, however, we have arrived at a point where “pick a wing, any wing” simply will not do. They have to possess a wide array of athletic traits, court vision, processing, and touch to even project to earn a second contract.1 Sifting through them is anything but simple, even if organizations wish it were so.
That brings us to the top of the 2024 Draft, where the betting favorite to go number 1 is slender 6’9 wing (and 6’9.5 wingspan) Zaccharie Risacher. Risacher, who I will cover more thoroughly below, is a fine player and prospect. Risacher was dogmatically dedicated to his role on French squad Bourg-en-Bresse as a “simplifying” wing. He shot well, and (very) quickly, from the 3 point wings and corners, mostly off the catch. He guarded players his size and smaller (and did so well, at least on the ball). He played hard and would sprint hard in transition, frequently taking the ball coast to coast and finishing with a dunk. And he very rarely, if ever, tried to do anything else. Play defense, shoot, drive in straight lines, and stay out of the way. Simple, simple, simple.
The problem is that the top of the draft, even one with a rotten reputation like 2024, is not for drafting players with simple, seamless fits in mind. The goal should be the exact opposite. The search should be for players, no matter the size, whose skills and dimensions stick out. Who mold and control the contours of the game. Who dominate it, creating and converting scoring chances at a very efficient rate.
Four players in 2024 have a chance to do so: Zach Edey, Ron Holland, Reed Sheppard, and Isaiah Collier. Only one of them, Holland, qualifies as a wing. And his pitch is appropriately wingy. Standing 6’8 in shoes with exceptional burst, Holland handled the ball at nearly 30% usage (yowza) for an ill-fated G-League Ignite team that lost dozens of games before he got hurt at the end of January and the team literally folded (yowza).
He is the draft’s best all around athlete with ballhandling and passing chops. And though those chops have skeptics, evidenced by his negative assist to turnover ratio,2 look closer: Holland had a positive ratio in his last 22 games after a horrendous 7 game start. He had never operated the the ball that much before, and on a team with new, young teammates in an older league, bumps were inevitable. Holland makes legitimate connective reads that should translate well to a Top 3 starter role.
When he drives, Holland can blow by POA defenders and shows adequate flexibility both throughout his gather and in midair to either finish or draw heaps of fouls. Accounting for the G League’s rule to only use one free throw for 2 points, Holland drew close to the equivalent of 8 FTs a game, and converted them at a solid mid 70s clip.3
His jumper looks smoother off the dribble than the catch, and while the percentage (low 20s) draws rightful criticism, I am not too worried. Basically every 18 year old shooting from an NBA line ever has struggled to convert, to say nothing of one operating at the usage level Holland did. His form is not broken to my eye, and while “league average” is a difficult label to pinpoint relative to his position and usage, Holland’s jumper should at the least improve as long as he remains willing to shoot it.
Holland’s defense and motor, which is more flashy than precise, will nonetheless secure him chances at rotation minutes no matter who drafts him. Over the course of his rookie contract, his driving talent will cement those minutes, and if any shotmaking tags along, Holland’s star path will crystallize.
Sheppard and Collier face a steep challenge: crack the NBA’s ultracompetitive guard crop to not only start, but excel against a peer group than has not yet awarded Jamal Murray with an All Star selection.4 They approach the challenge with inverted skillsets: Sheppard shot at a thermonuclear rate from all over the court, and Collier got to the rim whenever he wanted, no matter the opponent or the placement of his bigs.
Collier will go much lower than the top 4 because of several factors: unremarkable vertical pop, uncertain shooting indicators (33% 3 on middling volume, 67% FT), and concern over persistent turnovers, especially over the season’s first half.
I had a similar impression for much of the cycle. After all, those seem like a lot of hurdles to overcome. But Collier is such a rare physical talent, a true power athlete at guard with acceleration, deceleration, and physicality reminiscent of an All Pro running back, that I simply missed the forest for the trees.
Collier can create space at will, whether at the rim, stopping in midrange, or creating a stepback from 3. His turnover struggles frequently emanated from Collier’s own restless pacing: he would drive into set defenses, get all the way to the rim, and then try to make up his mind on where to deliver the ball.5 I firmly believe that audacious playmakers are safe bets to improve in the NBA, especially when they can create the kinds of massive passing windows Collier can.
USC’s offense did him no favors, and Collier nontheless shot 54% inside the arc and over 60% at the rim on monster usage. For such a “disappointing” season from the country’s no. 1 high school recruit, Collier scored reasonably efficiently and, on the occasions when he committed himself defensively, could shut off water of older guards without much strain.
Star talent begins with the ability to pressure opposing players. Isaiah’s game bubbles over with that potential. If Collier falls short, it will only be because he fails to cash in on the looks he has manifested. And he will get plenty of practice, because those looks pour out of his attacks. In the recent history of the league, there are not many players who have created windows as wide as Isaiah’s that they have failed to climb through.
Sheppard’s stats do not make much sense, really: he made 52% of his 144 attempted threes, most of which were lightningly released C&S or stepback looks. His touch translated to every area of the floor, and his impressive combine vertical is evident in his hiccup-quick pullup mechanics. He coupled that with a steal rate near 5%, which is Marcus Smart territory. Sheppard’s deflections were the result of otherwordly hand placement, timing, and coordination. It is a good thing, considering his limited footspeed and lateral athleticism left him vulnerable and targeted in isolation. , Nevertheless, Sheppard was am unprecedenteed, albeit novel, prospect on both sides of the ball. He is number 1 on many boards, understandably so.
He falls just short on mine because Sheppard, for all his talent, is choosy. He clocked in at under 19% usage, which even by “suppressed Kentucky guard” standards is low. If a defender stuck with him through his first move, usually a left to right crossover (which was pretty frequent), Reed would get off the ball. Unselfish? Certainly, but NBA teams rarely win because a great player has perfected a swing pass against a set defense. They win because a great player has stressed a defense passed its breaking point. Sheppard has pathways to do so, most notably expanding his range to 28+, but there is at least a chance he settles into the lower impact, connector role in which he has looked so comfortable.
Sheppard will be a positive player in pretty short order, and is a safe bet to find himself in big games along the way in his career. His ability to tilt those games with his shooting touch, his transition passing, and his defensive timing should return top value in the draft. But tilting games is one thing; squashing them is another. With due respect to Holland, Collier, and Sheppard, Zach Edey is a squasher.
Everyone knows that what Edey does, he does very well: score in the post and rebound the ball. It sounds quaint, even antiquated, until you realize just how extreme Edey’s numbers are.
Here is one attempt: Below are high major NCAA players in the last 15 years who finished the season with 75 dunks and 130 made free throws:
Bam Adebayo
Anthony Davis
Marvin Bagley III
Mason Plumlee
Deandre Ayton
Trayce Jackson-Davis
Zach Edey (twice).
This past season, Edey made 310 free throws, more than 130 more than anyone else on this list. Volume free throws are still the most efficient way to score in the NBA, especially if you can shoot them at 70+% like Edey can.
Edey’s 113 dunks topped the list. His offensive rebound rate, around 20 both seasons, blew everyone out of the water. His scoring touch was arguably the best as well. There is no real question about whether Edey is an NBA player; this past season, he already was one. He just happened to be playing in the NCAA.
Bagley’s odd journey aside, the only non-star prospects on this list are Plumlee and TJD, who join Edey as the only non-freshman. There are other statistical categories I could eliminate them through (namely, offensive rebounding), but the blunter way to put this is Zach Edey is 7’5 in shoes with a 7’10+ wingspan. When the man stands and reaches up, his hands are 5 inches from the rim.
Positional size is frequently sought after by contending teams. Ask the Boston Celtics, whose shortest player in their title lineup stood 6’5. But it matters just as much at center. Edey skeptics I believe are not missing the forest for the trees, but th’e worlds largest tree but squinting too closely at its bark.
Enormous players who score well tend to do so when matched against smaller defenders who cannot stop them. That may seem reductive or even condescending, but that’s what Edey does: his jump hooks and drop steps and dunks descend onto whatever poor sap(lings) flail about beneath him.
Other giant players who had never sniffed Edey’s production or his durability have become bit players (Tacko Fall, Boban Marjanovic), but that is why production and durability are so blindingly important when looking at prospects.
Edey will command doubles in the post, and while he is not an inventive passer, he will be good enough to ensure that his offenses are brutally effective when he is on the court. That alone would make him a top 10 prospect in most drafts.
Skeptics view his defense cautiously, and they should. Defense has tended to be very important for centers, and offenses are only going to park more centers at the 3 point and hunt more switches to try and entice giants like Edey into space where drivers could wrong-foot him. There will be growing pains on that end as Edey figures out his drop positioning, both through his feet and his arms, which he has a bad habit of keeping down while drives unfold in front of him.
Edey will never be an All Defense player, but it does not make him a risky prospect that he is not monstrously effective on both sides of the ball. Giants near the rim still dissuade players from shooting there, and I believe Edey will do that enough to stay on the floor. Will he be defensively versatile outside of drop coverage? No, but he will rebound every miss and still swat anything in his orbit.
Every center in the NBA gets cooked by great offensive players, but it’s only a select few that deep fry on the other end. Anthony Davis is possibly the game’s best defender at the moment, and Domantas Sabonis annihilates him whenever they play. Edey is six inches and 50 pounds larger than Dom Boni. In an uncertain draft, it is ironic that the most certain and durable offensive force, the one with the most positional size, is not a lock to go near the top. It will be a bruising, painful lesson for teams to learn.
Tier 2: Projected Starters with Durable Playoff Value
Devin Carter, 22 years old. 6’3+, 6’8.75 WS, 35” standing vert, 42” standing vert. Pullup and Offball Shooter, Paint Scorer, Connective playmaker; Defensive Playmaker, 2-3 Position switch defender, POA defender.
Donovan Clingan, 20 years old. 7’3, 9’7 standing reach. Play Finisher, Screen Plamaker; Interior Anchor, Lead Defensive Communicator, Drop Coverage deterrent.
Alex Sarr, 19 years old. 7’1, 7’4+ wingspan. Play Finisher, Five out center shooter, Connective Playmaker; 3-4 Position switch defender, ISO ace, drop center.
Cody Williams, 19 years old. 6’7+, 7’1 WS, 31” standing vert, 35.5” max vert. Touch finisher, Connective Playmaker, 3P Theory; 2-3 Position switch defender, POA defender.
Pacome Dadiet, 18 years old. 6’9, 36” max vert. C&S Shooter, Connective Playmaker, OTD shooter; Team Defender, Wing Defender.
Bub Carrington, 18 years old. 6’5, 6’8 WS, 36.5” max vert. PnR Playmaker, Volume Pullup Shooter, Touch Finisher; POA Defender, Possible Switch Defender
This next group conveniently breaks down into two wings (Cody Williams, Pacome Dadiet) two guards (Devin Carter, Bub Carrington) and two bigs (Donovan Clingan, Alex Sarr). Sarr might take offense at my designation, since he views himself more of a jumbo wing forward than a boring old center.
But Sarr would do well to study the other “unicorns” that have preceded him: Kristaps Porzingis, Jaren Jackson Jr., Evan Mobley, Chet Holmgren, Victor Wembanyama. All of them have thrived most, and by a longshot, when they play the 5. They get to play slower footed counterparts there that they can most easily beat. All except Mobley also sported better shooting profiles than Sarr, and though Sarr is every bit the switch defender Mobley was as a prospect, Mobley’s reactivity, suddenness off the ground, and rebounding all eclipse what Sarr has shown as a youth player and in the NBL for Perth.
That might sound harsh, but Sarr is quite young (freshly 19), and is not some deer in headlights. For the most part, he showed solid discipline in drop coverage at Perth, blocked plenty of shots, and enveloped plenty of wings and guards on switches. There is no question he can be a weapon. His biggest issue is the shots he chose so frequently on offense: fadeaways and OTD jumpers away from the basket. Some of them went in, but Sarr cannot afford to handicap himself by not using his considerable frame to get as close to the basket as possible. I am skeptical Sarr, a very good but not truly explosive athlete, will get enough slack to figure all that out off the dribble. Before long, he will be in the short roll and popping for the majority of his offensive possessions.
NBA guards will help him, and he should he should mature into a defensively versatile starting center, albeit a poor rebounding one.
Devin Carter and Donovan Clingan may not seem like more attractive prospects than a pseudowing like Sarr. Carter is 6’3 and less than 200 lbs, and Clingan is as true a center as Edey is. But where Sarr suggests mystery, Carter and Clingan will provide certainty in their value and their role to winning squads.
Clingan will wall off the rim, shade help, and direct a team’s defense into competency, and perhaps excellence, possession after possession. His positioning up to 12 or so feet from the hoop is consistently on point, his effort is tireless, and his standing reach is every bit of Edey’s. Clingan has grown his game across two national titles at UConn and should be at least neutral as a low usage offensive player. He will screen, pass, and finish with conviction and anticipation, if not court-bending speed or daring. Clingan would be in my top tier, and perhaps at the top of it, if he showed better touch on offense or more graceful overall movement. He plays very hard and understands the game very well for a giant 20 year old, but I believe that the ceiling he may impose on his own offense may hurt him in playoff matchups against more explosive squads.
Carter, probably my favorite player in the draft to watch, does everything. He hits 3s off the dribble and off the catch, from corners or (well) above the break. He rebounds, guards at POA, and chases off the ball, with a knack for both absorbing contact and deflecting passes or blocking shots with exceptional athleticism and timing. He can score in the paint with a rapidly developing two foot game and deliver connective passes with suprising anticipation.
His motor was very hot despite a heavy burden at Providence, and his efficiency should increase with a more tailored role and NBA talent around him. Carter’s rapid development across all areas of his game, especially on offense with his moonbeam jumper, can raise eyebrows in either direction. But I am in. 84 made 3s in any season on the diet of shots Carter took with his two way responsibility is more relevant than any other sample.
Were Carter over 200 pounds and played with a bit more natural power, he’d likely be in my top 3. Switchblade guards like Carter with the ability to score on or off the ball are worth a high pick in any year.
Cody Williams and Pacome Dadiet are as close as I am going to get to wing deference in this class. Neither has Holland’s athleticism, nor did they take over their respective teams as a top offensive option. Cody was a steady 3rd option on a very good offense at Colorado before an injury compromised his effectiveness in February. Dadiet alternated between starting and coming off the bench as an offball scoring wing for Ratiopharm Ulm, a very good team in Germany’s league.
What they both share is excellent finishing touch and positional size. Cody shot over 70% at the rim on a hard diet of contested shots, which speaks both to his lack of ability to separate and his astonishing scoring knack, one he shares with his superstar older brother. That knack, coupled with a 7’1 WS on a frame that should fill out, is enough for me to believe Cody will start and contribute on both ends in the NBA, even if stardom eludes him.
Dadiet, standing at 6’9 in shoes and an easy 210 pounds, frequently found ways to cut and finish at the hoop efficiently. When given the limited chances to operate the ball, he showed patience and understanding in pick and roll and comfort shooting off the dribble. His lack of burst and yucky defensive footwork has concerned me for much of the cycle, but Dadiet turns 19 at the end of July. The intel surrounding his habits and coachability are glowing. The more I thought about him, the less distance I could put between he and Williams. Cody should be a clearly better defender, but precocious, sound 6’9 ballhandlers tend to find their way into starting lineups. I expect Dadiet to, and there is a chance he pleasantly surpasses even this admittedly aggressive ranking.
Bub, a pullup shooting delight (50% from midrange on 130 attempts, 65 made 3s) who can make a bunch of sound decisions with a defender on his hip in pick and roll, is a similar bet on processing, youth, and positional size. Carrington did not get to the rim much at all at Pitt, nor did he take many chances or create any chaos on defense. But at 6’5 with a 6’8 wingspan, Bub has been growing steadily, quite literally, over the last several years. He had not played much in pick and roll before college, and his aptitude for engaging multiple defenders and making sounds decisions at 18 years old (24 ast %, 2:1 ATO) kept popping off the screen. Despite his strength deficiency, he showed promise in at least getting over screens and staying attached to ballhandlers.
It is harder to envision Bub as a great complementary piece unless his defense comes up. He has the dimensions to do it, and I am banking on his youth and growth curve to help him reach an acceptable level. But players at this size with this understanding rarely wash out, and as Bub gets into NBA space, his comfort in tight spaces will tend to keep passing and finishing windows open by a half second more than his smaller or less patient counterparts. He should convert on those chances and become a starting guard, and perhaps a valuable one.
Tier 3: High Rotation Players with Starter Theories
Rob Dillingham, 19 years old. 6’2. Gravity Shooter, Volume Scorer, Volume playmaker; Effort deflector.
Matas Buzelis, 19 years old. 6’10, 6’10 WS, 31” standing vert, 38” max vert. Rim Finisher, Connective Playmaker, C&S Theory; Weakside Rim Protector, Switch Wing Defender
Kel’el Ware, 20 years old. 7’1, 9’4.5 standing reach. Play Finisher, Five out Center Prospect, Midrange Shooter; Drop Coverage Deterrent.
Stephon Castle, 19 years old. 6’6+, 6’9 WS, 38’ max vert. Connective Playmaker, Contact Finisher, 3p Theory; POA Defender, 2-3 Position Switch Defender
Dalton Knecht, 23 years old. 6’6+, 6’9 WS. Gravity Shooter, Shotmaker, Connective Passer; Team Defender.
Zaccharie Risacher, 19 years old. 6’9+, 6’9.5 WS. Volume offball shooter, Transition pusher, Closeout Driver; Defensive Playmaker, 2-3 Position Switch defender, POA defender
Ryan Dunn, 21 years old. 6’7+, 7’1.5 WS, 32” standing vert, 38'‘ max vert. Play finisher; Defensive Playmaking Ace, 3-4 Position Switch Defender, Space Closer, POA Defender.
Jonathan Mogbo, 22 years old. 6’7+, 7’2 WS. 31” standing vert, 37” max vert. Rim Finisher, Connective Playmaker; 3-4 Position Switch Defender, Defensive Playmaker
Nikola Topic, 18 years old. 6’7, 6’5.75 WS. Rim Finisher, PnR Playmaker, 3p Theory; Liability in Iso, Team Defender.
Tidjane Salaun, 18 years old, 6’10, 7’1 WS. C&S Shooter, Gravity Driver, Connective Playmaker; 2-3 Position Switch Defender, Overgrown irritant
Jared McCain, 19 years old. 6’3+, 6’3.5 WS. Gravity Shooter, Connective Passer; Liability, Team Defender.
Johnny Furphy, 19 years old. 6’8+, 6’8 WS. Volume Offball Shooter, Rim Finisher, Connective Passer; Team Defender, Wing Defender
Jaylon Tyson, 21 years old. 6’6+, 6’8 WS, 36.5 max vert. OTD shooter, Connective Passer, Shotmaker; Team Defender, Wing Defender
Jaylen Wells, 20 years old. 6’7+. Gravity Shooter, Connective Passer; Team Defender
Terrence Shannon Jr., 23 years old. 6’7, 6’8.75 WS. Relentless Driver, Connective Passer, Shotmaker; POA Defender, Switch Defender.
Kyshawn George, 20 years old. 6’8+, 6’10.25 WS. Volume Offball shooter, Connective Passer; Team Defender, Wing Defender.
Isaiah Crawford, 22 years old, 6’6+, 7’ WS. C&S Shooter, Connective Passer; Defensive Playmaker, Switch Defender.
Kyle Filipowski, 20 years old. 7’. Driver, Connective Passer, 3p Theory; Team Defender, Effort Deflector.
Keshad Johnson, 23 years old, 6’8+, 6’10.25 WS; Rim Finisher, Connective Passer, 3p Theory; 2-3 position switch defender, Big Wing Menace
Daron Holmes II, 21 years old. 6’10, 7’1 WS; Rim Finisher, Five out matchup Center, Connective Passer; Weakside Shotblocker
Dillon Jones, 22 years old. 6’5+, 6’11 WS; Connective Playmaker, FT machine, Shotmaker; Rebounding Fiend, Block of Granite
Tristan Da Silva, 23 years old. 6’9+, 6’10.25 WS; Movement Shooter, Connective Playmaker, Transition Pusher; Team Defender
Drafts very rarely, if ever, return a whole first round’s worth of starters. Though this draft has been through the mud, many agree that it is deep with potential rotation players. This overstuffed tier of 22 players are my favorite bets to stick around for multiple contracts and, at some point, display enough to get a look in starting lineups. With the exception of a couple, those looks will be as a 4th or 5th starter. Nowadays, that can mean one or more of several different avenues. Below is an attempt to categorize with several examples. Of course, many players can have overlapping:
Group 1: Defensive versatility and ground coverage across the perimeter and in help, with (mostly) play finishing and/or connective passing on offense (e.g. Derrick Jones Jr., Caleb Martin, Patrick Williams, Quentin Grimes, Andre Jackson Jr., Nicolas Batum, Anthony Black, Alex Caruso)
Group 2: Versatile offball scoring, usually with pronounced defensive questions (e.g. Bogdan Bogdanovic, Naz Reid, Gradey Dick, Corey Kispert, Isaiah Joe, Duncan Robinson, Sam Hauser, Jaime Jaquez, Nikola Jovic);
Group 3: Playmaking or Shotmaking ability, usually with POA and/or guard-switch defensive chops (e.g. Ayo Dosunmu, Malik Monk, Andrew Nembhard, Terrance Mann, Miles McBride, Nickeil Alexander-Walker).
Those categories can bleed into each other, but the commonality, like with any NBA player who gets minutes, is that the ball is scored efficiently. The shot diet and frequency might shift from group to group, but in general, these players do not quite get the usage entrusted to Top 3 starters whose offensive games are more well rounded.
Group 1: Matas Buzelis, Stephon Castle, Zaccharie Risacher, Ryan Dunn, Jonathan Mogbo, Tidjane Salaun, Isaiah Crawford, and Keshad Johnson.
Buzelis, Castle, and Risacher stick out the most, since there is a decent chance each hear their name called in the top 5 on draft night, with Risacher potentially going number 1. Each of these players has much to recommend: Buzelis is a solid, springy athlete at 6’9, with very good anticipation and instincts for rotating into position along the baseline. Matas has excellent hands for deflections and especially blocks, averaging over 2 a game for the G league. Castle is a POA defensive beast who handled every guard the NCAA threw at him with aplomb, including Devin Carter and Terrence Shannon Jr. Built well but at smaller wing dimensions, Castle projects to guard 1-3 in the pros and play physically from bell to bell. Risacher has similar defensive bona fides, though he makes a few more plays off the ball and has a weaker base than Castle.
If any of these 3 had offensive games that inspired more confidence, I’d have no issue with them in my top 10. Of the 3, only Risacher shot at volume, let alone well, and Risacher’s other play was so rigid that I struggle to see him earning the chance to be creative in the NBA. Offensive usage is fixed; for a player to get more for himself, he must fight for it. Some players more naturally settle into the “simplifying” role Risacher played in France, and others push the envelope. Buzelis and Castle fit the “envelope pusher” mold more than Risacher, but neither has the shooting touch to convince me their efforts will bear fruit. Castle, who is a quite solid connective passer, has most everything but the shot, and a late season FT bump is encouraging. But his low 3 point volume aside, Castle is also a bit of a straight line driver, which would be fine if he were 6’8 or 6’9, but not so much at 6’6+.
Matas had to adjust to an NBA 3 point line just as Ron Holland did, and so he gets the benefit of the doubt from me that he might become a consistent starter. Matas will likely always operate with a strength deficiency, and has some troublesome tunnel vision to cure as well. I can envision Matas as one of the draft’s ten best, but it may not come together for his drafting team.
Ryan Dunn and Jonathon Mogbo are a fascinating pair. Group 1 players tend to be 4th or 5th starters because of offensive limitations, but if the defense is special enough (as in, all-defense level), then they can tick up to 3rd. Dunn has that talent. You probably know Dunn’s defensive reputation, but there is not much he cannot do, especially in isolation. Great hands and reactive athleticism created highlight after highlight for Dunn, and it is easy to dream on him as a top 10 outcome if only he could ever do anything on offense consistently. Dunn was tentative and ineffective enough on offense this year that for much of the cycle I had him outside of the 1st round. Corner 3 success stories do happen though, so I had to raise his expected outcome a bit.
Mogbo may well be able to shoot, he just has never tried in college. Mogbo probably presents to best combination of physical talent (7’2 wingspan, second in nation in dunks behind Edey) and processing (2:1 ATO) in the draft. He is preternaturally patient, operating as a short roll/high post hub for San Francisco and making good decision after good decision. It is hard to envision Mogbo not finding a role somewhere as a switch weapon on defense, but at 6’7, I just think he is going to need to shoot if he is to become more than a (very cool) bench player.
Isaiah Crawford, a fifth year senior from Louisiana Tech, has the sort of profile (40% from 3 for his college career, 5% block rate, 3% steal rate) that some teams might draft without ever watching him play. He uses his strength (215 lbs, Kawhi hands) expertly, bumping and jamming drives with almost nonchalant regularity. He finds himself in the 20s due to two knee surgeries and a tendency to play a slow, patient defensive game. He does not fly around the court or elevate like Dunn; he lies in wait and dares you to wander into his space. If you do, the ball is his. Another very cool player, but the NBA will demand he play much faster.
Tidjane Salaun and Keshad Johnson are kindred spirits raised under different masters. Both have great wing size and play with uncommon, somewhat uncomfortably high motors. Salaun especially might cause his share of “altercations” with his brand of overgrown irritance. I have never seen a big wing quite like him, and his confidence in this draft class is literally unmatched. If there is any usage that his talent allows, Salaun will find it. For a while, I had Salaun in the top 10 (where he may well go) out of sheer awe of his force and willingness to do anything: launch 3s, set screens, cut, take charges, rebound, drive, relocate, etc.
But there is a difference between trying something and doing it well. And though Salaun is tantalizing, I do not know what actual basketball activity he will excel at, much less if he is going to score efficiently enough to lock down meaningful minutes. Shooting 40% from the field and only blocking 8 shots in about 60 games does not help matters. I will be a lifelong fan of Salaun’s, but I do not know if even he can outwill the cruel machine of NBA efficiency.
Keshad, meanwhile, is content to try only 3 things on offense (C&S 3s, designed passes, and dunks) and do them forever. At 245 pounds, Keshad posted a 34 inch standing vertical and 42 inch max. That is not normal, no matter how generous the measurements. He has a real case as the draft’s most fearsome run and jump athlete, and he will make a steal of a pick for some team looking for defensive accommodation on the wing. 7th man? Maybe, but give me a 7th man who can make Jayson Tatum’s life uncomfortable any day of the week.
Group 2: *Kel’el Ware*, Johnny Furphy, Dalton Knecht, Jaylen Wells, Kyshawn George, Kyle Filipowski, Dillon Jones, Daron Holmes II, Tristan Da Silva
This group is headlined by Dalton Knecht, the NCAA’s most lethal all-around scorer this season. Knecht was not merely an offball 3p sniper; he could drive, hard, and elevate into dunks and free throws throughout the SEC season. Dalton was more effective after his first step, where his long strides got him to the rim very quickly.
There is a chance that Dalton justifies the Top 10 selection he will likely receive on draft night, despite his age. He is plenty athletic to stick in the NBA, he will fit snugly into most offensive structures, and he will get every chance to close games since he is not so small to be an obvious defensive target.
My main trepidation is that Knecht may be a very good NBA shooter as opposed to a great one. A career high 70s FT shooter over 5 college seasons, Knecht has also never really stood out as a passer, and his defense has always taken a backseat to the offensive burden his teams have asked of him.
None of that is fatal to a second NBA contract or anything, but it does tend to raise the ball on just how good of a scorer Knecht must be to be an upper-echelon offensive player.
Tristan Da Silva, another 23 year old getting a lot of lottery buzz, gets a bit more of a break since he is 6’9 and can provide more defensive value than Knecht mostly by being in the right place. But the principal is the same. TDS slashed 50/39/80 over his final 3 college seasons, and will certainly get a chance at rotation minutes right away.
He is a smart player capable of impressive pace and connective passes. But were I drafting, he would likely end up on another team. TDS does not have an explosive last step on drives, leading him to pass out of layup attempts and frequently into turnovers. He also never really operated at a physical advantage relative to other players his height, giving ground on drives and getting pushed around in the post often. That discrepancy will only be exacerbated at the next level.
Somewhere between Knecht and Da Silva’s level of physical imposition is Daron Holmes II. Holmes, who ended up doing just about everything, from post to inverted PnR, at Dayton seems to be a mismatch nightmare begging for NBA spacing to unleash him: he has always been among the country’s leaders in dunks, he draws plenty of FTs, and his shooting touch looks impressive for tweener big.
I like Holmes, and I think he can be of use especially in the regular season as a minutes eater. But he has never quite shown the same versatility on defense, where like TDS he gave ground in the post against players with more physical frames than his 220-225lb one. It is tempting to imagine him as capable of playing the 4 alongside a dynamic 5, but his defensive movement on the perimeter and lopey handle render that more of a pipe dream. Holmes will have his moments, but mostly as a matchup backup 5.
Kyle Filipowski has some of the same lack of defensive clarity as Holmes, but does show a bit more juice and dexterity in his driving game. I could see Flip, should he develop a reliable 3 point shot (reasonably possible), getting an extended look in some starting units. He is a solid passer rumbling downhill and unafraid of contact at the hoop, to put it mildly. He also is a bit more game along the perimeter than Holmes, but going from a college 5 to a rotation NBA wing is a tall athletic order, much less a starting one. More likely than not, he is a matchup 5 as well.
Dillon Jones, on the other hand, boggles my mind as to his ultimate NBA fate. One of the draft’s strongest players and very best passers and rebounders, Jones is a 235 pound block of granite on the wing. He can whip passes with either hand, set up a nice little stepback jumper, and draw fouls through both force and craft. His burst is minimal, which ultimately reflects in my ranking, but I hope against hope that my imagination is failing me and he becomes an unholy Dez Bane derivative, leveraging strength constantly to disrupt opposing offenses, warp opposing defenses, and inhale rebounds.
Johnny Furphy, Jaylen Wells, and Kyshawn George are darts after my own heart. I am a sucker for forward sized shooters with hints of more to their games. Despite not testing terribly well athletically, each has just enough to keep me rooted. Furphy shot over 80% as a rim finisher, almost entirely on assisted looks. But he drove fearlessly and had a knack for forcing contact with his last step, which seemed to take opponents by surprise, either off the dribble or on a cut. He also showed more defensive fight staying in front of guards than I believe he was given credit for, and popped as a hardscrabble offensive rebounder. When forced by injuries to create a bit more within Kansas’ flow scheme, I thought Furphy showed promise for someone who turned 19 in December.
Wells, for my money, as the prettiest jumper in the draft among wing-sized players, even moreso than Knecht or Baylor Scheierman. Like Furphy and George, he did not begin the season as a focal point of his team (Washington State). Unlike Furphy, by the end of the season, Wells was his team’s main offensive option. With a jumper as wet as Wells’, opposing defenses paid him more attention and he gradually started putting together a deliberate, herky-jerky drive game where that he felt comfortable either shooting or passing out of. I wish Wells had a longer wingspan and could spend more time as an NBA 3, but I fear his assignment will be too often to guard guards quicker than he. Still, I would not write off some sort of Isaiah Joe-ish development arc for him.
Kyshawn George, probably the highest regarded of the 3, has the true wing body type most sought after in NBA circles. He just does not seem to do enough with it. Furphy and Wells pushed within their team contexts for more offensive responsibility over the course of the year. At Miami, which admittedly sported very bizarre vibes, George’s usage would come and go with little rhyme or reason. What is certain is that when KG looked good, shooting or passing out of pick and roll, he looked very good. His lack of burst likely keeps him relegated to the bench, but in a role that could be valuable to any kind of team.
Each of George, Furphy, and Wells will likely start at least 1 game in the next couple season due to regular season attrition on their respective squads. That’s what wing sized, complimentary shooting tends to do. I have a feeling one of them will pop enough in a swing department, whether it be Furphy and Wells cementing a dribble drive game, or George gaining some athletic pop towards his mid 20s, to where they return value higher than where I have them.
Kel’el Ware bucks these groups a bit, only because his theoretical value is much higher. A true center with very good measurements and athletic testing, Kel’el has very encouraging jump shooting touch that, for someone of his size, he probably indulges in a bit too much. As a 19 year old, he amassed double doubles with regularity and racked up enough blocks to garner a “rim protector” label even though his court processing is way behind schedule and he frequently found himself jumping or lurching in the wrong direction or at the wrong time. Indiana was talented enough that if there were a blue chip center prospect anchoring its defense, it should have been a 4 seed. Instead, they missed the NCAA tournament and never seriously threatened to make it.
NBA development can be funny. If Kel’el lands in the right place and is taught the proper habits, painstakingly, over his rookie contract, then there is a world where he plays big playoff minutes as an actual center who can actually shoot and finish hard at the rim on lobs. That is worth a real shot from someone, but it’s a long road. There’s a good chance all the good work done with Ware benefits his 2nd team more.
Group 3: Rob Dillingham, Nikola Topic, Jared McCain, Terrence Shannon Jr.
These 4 are, in their own way, outlier talents who do not quite live up to the defensive responsibility (excluding Shannon) required of positive supporting contributors. That is normal, to a certain extent: 19 and 20 year old guards are usually offensively tilted and usually take a lot of time on the other end until becoming acceptable.
But Dillingham, Topic, and McCain will test that outlook. Dillingham and McCain have endemic physical shortcomings (Dilly is short and light, McCain short and slow, both with <10th percentile NBA wingspans) and, unlike Sheppard, do not have defensive playmaking production to hang their hat on. Each does what they can, and Dillingham’s twitchy athleticism and chaotic help style garnered some highlight steals, but it’s going to be rough for awhile on that end in the NBA. When that happens, guards of this size usually end up becoming 6th men. Which is fine; that is still a lucrative career in the world’s best league. Scoring 6th men just tend to bounce around a lot because they do not impact winning as much as you’d like them to.
Which is a shame, because Dillingham is the most offensively gifted, electric guard in the draft. Apart from his handle and his shotmaking, which garner a lot of love, I am higher than most on his passing talent. Dillingham’s arms move so suddenly, and he strings his move togethre with so much crispness, that passing windows matriculate before his defenders realize it. The touch Dilly can put on those passes out of dribble moves is exceptional. He is more inconsistent on “safe,” predictable connector reads that teams value more out of supporting players, but when he cooks, he sizzles.
As good a shooter as Dillingham is, McCain might be better. McCain has Incredible mechanics, unconscious confidence, and a physical necessity to launch as frequently as possible because of his lack of on ball burst. McCain’s feel is all over the court. He knows that when he cuts, he has to make up his mind early and cut hard to get even a bit of separation; when he shoots off the dribble, he has to rise up immediately to ensure he jumps before his defenders contests; when he attacks the hoop, he makes sure it’s vacated so he doesn’t have to deal with much defensive help. That craft is appreciated, but the NBA tends to value burst and size more.
If McCain had a better wingspan, I might dream of a Van Vleetish outcome; if he bullied opposing guards inside the arc more, maybe a Brunsony development. I will not write him off because he is strongly built, skilled, and has won at every level. If someone wants to take him in the lottery, I would understand. I always feel bad betting on the NBA house to prevail over a nuanced starting hand like McCain. Hopefully, he bankrupts us all.
Topic has better physical gifts than Dilly or McCain, standing 6’7 in shoes (perhaps aided disproportionately by a long neck) and has the pedigree of a starting point guard. He was one of the most disruptive downhill rim forces in the Adriatic League that has produced pros before, and looked good in the world’s second best league, the EuroLeague, doing much of the same thing before he got hurt. His finishing touch was comically good, though the Adriatic league did not have the most fearsome rim protectors, and his rates really plummeted when he faced hard contests.
Topic passed very well out of his drives, but everything was on the move; Topic knew his burst could get him downhill, and he never really explored more deliberate or manipulative attacks that could open up additional passing angles. His burst was step A, and he spammed it to either finnish or pass to pretty predictable standstill shooters or rollers.
His ACL is now partially torn, which admittedly affected my evaluation, but Topic also did not show much of anything on defense, and his wingspan is negative. His supporters point to his size and burst as reasons why he could be acceptable eventually, and they might be right. He is a very good free throw shooter, enough so that you would think the OTD 3 that he will need will eventually arrive. His body might add some useful weight, though he is unlikely to ever be an above the rim athlete.
My reluctance has more to do with the amount of hurdles Topic has to overcome, and what sort of a guard he becomes if does so. If the injury is a one off, and if the OTD shooting comes up (his C&S numbers need to as well), and if he approaches average on defense, then…he still needs to beat lots and lots of very good NBA PGs, at least in how ruthlessly he scores. Collier is a better power athlete, Carrington has better dimensions and better shooting form, and…I just cannot quite pull the trigger given Topic’s injury. Folks I respect have him in the Top 7 or higher, and I certainly understand why.
TSJ has the two way athleticism required of a supporting high rotation guard, and his burst OTD is exceptional. He has been through the draft process many times before, and his shooting has reached a level (42% on unguarded C&S) where he is a good bet to get NBA minutes next year.
There is an argument for TSJ to float around lottery discussions that is more persuasive to me than Tristan Da Silva, and is arguable with Knecht. TSJ can really get over screens, really drive and collapse defenses, and should shoot enough.
I’d prefer if his movements were a bit less predictable. TSJ gets over screens, but he is much more reactive than anticipatory; I did not see him impose his will on opposing ballhandlers for someone 23 years old the entire season. Likewise, though his driving was effective, it was not manipulative. One of the reasons Stephon Castle guarded him so effectively in the Elite Eight is that Castle understood once TSJ got going, all he had to do was bump or steer him to a wider finishing angle and that Castle (and Clingan) would have the tools to make that finish very difficult.
TSJ is NBA player, but calcifying those more predictable habits over so much college time may shut off some unique development paths and mute his ultimate impact.
Below are the rest of my rankings, but that’s enough spilled ink for a draft write up. I like many of these players below, but their starter theories are too distant and they are more likely to hang around than affect winning at a significant level.
Thank you very much for reading, and listening. Find your dartboard, and start chucking.
Tier 4: Rotation Bets With Some Theory of Durable Value
Tyler Smith, 19 years old. 6’10+, 7’1 WS.
Yves Missi, 20 years old. 7’, 7’2 WS.
Ulrich Chomche, 18 years old. 6’11+, 7’4 WS.
Cam Spencer, 24 years old. 6’4+, 6’5 WS.
Baylor Scheierman, 23 years old. 6’7+, 6’8.25 WS.
Anton Watson, 23 years old. 6’8, unk WS.
Kevin McCullar Jr, 23 years old. 6’6+, 6’9 WS.
Tristen Newton, 23 years old. 6’4+, 6’6.75 WS.
Adem Bona, 21 years old. 6’9+, 7”3.25 WS.
Ja’Kobe Walter, 19 years old. 6’5+, 6’10 WS.
Jalen Bridges, 23 years old. 6’8, 6’10 WS.
Justin Edwards, 20 years old. 6’7+, 6’10 WS.
Ajay Mitchell, 22 years old. 6’4+, 6’6.25 WS.
Trentyn Flowers, 19 years old. 6’7+, 6’8.25 WS. 34.5” standing vert, 42’ max vert.
Nikola Djurisic, 20 years old. 6’8+, 6’8 WS.
Cam Christie, 18 years old. 6’5+, 6’8 WS.
Antonio Reeves, 23 years old, 6’5+, 6’8.25 WS.
N’Faly Dante, 23 years old. 6’11+, 7’6 WS.
Jamal Shead, 21 years old. 6’1+, 6’3 WS.
Chances to Stick or Bounce Around
Juan Nunez
Bobi Klintman
Enrique Freeman
KJ Simpson
Bronny James
Tyler Kolek
Jaylin Williams
Quinten Post
Oso Ighodaro
PJ Hall
Reece Beekman
Dylan Disu
Pelle Larsson
Harrison Ingram
Kevin Cross
Emanuel Miller
Melvin Ajinca
Spencer Jones
AJ Johnson Jr.
Josiah Jordan-James
E.g., Bridges and Anunoby each have wingspans at least 7’2, five inches longer than Risacher. Each were the best defensive wing in the country in their respective draft classes. Bridges spearheaded the defense of the best college basketball team of the decade, and Anunoby, as a perimeter player, shot 70% inside the arc.
Highlighted by by a 2 assist-11 turnover disasterpiece early in the season
Holland showed an odd penchant for scoring more efficiently when his usage increased; in the 18 games out of 29 where he took at least 15 shots, he shot over 50% from the field.
Another reason why wings are so attractive: guards have to be incredibly gifted to rise to the top of their more crowded position group. Fewer wings, lower bar.
Even so, he still managed a 30 assist % on 30% usage and shot over 50% inside the arc. The only other drafted guardsin that neighborhood in the last 15 years are Markelle Fultz, DeAaron Fox, and Dennis Smith Jr.