2025 NBA Draft Final Dart Board: Cooper and Kon & Off & On

The 2025 Draft is a snapshot of the shrinking studio space for on-ball projects and of the continued premium for immediately helpful offball talents.

You enjoy basketball, yes?

I do too. My name is Chuck. On my podcast, the Chucking Darts NBA and Draft Podcast, I talk about the NBA, its draft, and the relationship between the two in building championships. The goal of the podcast, besides quality of conversation, is to figure out predictive truths about the league and its draft. To make the draft less of the dice roll, random walk, or (ahem) dart throw than NBA teams would have you believe that it is.

Below are my thoughts on the top 40+ players in this year’s draft, with rankings out to 71. These are not deep scouting reports that you can find on my podcast, but quick impressions on how the player stands to add value in a ruthlessly efficient NBA. For the top 30, I have included relevant physical measurements and several areas in which they will add value. Offensive roles are pre-semi colon; defensive roles are post semi-colon.

Tier 1: All-NBA Talent with Deep Playoff Value

Cooper Flagg, 6’9, Duke. Connective playmaker and finisher, PnR playmaker and finisher, 3 level scorer; Demonic competitor, Helpside defensive playmaker, Rebounder and transition facilitator

Usually, an inevitable number 1 prospect is not the most invigorating to discuss by the time the draft arrives. Months of exhaustive discussion about a foregone conclusion will do that. The most fashionable talking points about Cooper Flagg have been his place among historical number one prospects, or American born prospects, or about whether he is the center of a diseased Mavericks-Lakers-NBA ratings-team sale conspiracy.

Lovely as that all is, my lasting impression of Dart Flagg is not only his breathless completeness as a talent, but how he paves the value paths that future prospects, including the rest of the 2025 class, will need to walk.

Flagg does everything while insisting on nothing. He can operate pick and roll, or in isolation, or knock down C&S 3s (84% FT, 38% 3s with 50 makes), but a team need not bend itself over backwards to choose one to emphasize. He is, in fact, most comfortable when he is not given the isolation star treatment that is becoming an increasingly polarizing winning strategy.

Flagg prefers to keep the ball moving and pass or drive ahead of a defense’s rotation, ping-ponging between multiple two-man actions on the same possession as either initiator, connective playmaker, or rampaging driver until a defense’s will starts to wilt. It is unselfish, but make no mistake: he thirsts for blood, and takes special delight in embarrassing a defense that cannot keep up with the Cooper Flagg Uh-Oh Variety Show.

His defense is similarly democratic. He can guard opposing wings in isolation, but it is better to let Cooper roam off of the ball, where he can help execute and lead rotations, break up lazy passes at the perimeter, nail, or paint, or erase layup attempts in recovery or in help.

In fact, isolation offense and defense might be where Flagg is most presently challenged, as his hip/leg flexibility and footwork on each end is merely encouraging and not elite. Tight handlers can wrong-foot and blow by him, and stout defenders can read his driving angles and absorb him through the chest.

Of course, Cooper is not 19 until December, the youngest number one overall pick since Lebron James. So if he wants to be an isolation superstar, he has plenty of time to manifest that outcome.

It is all, and frankly more, than the Mavericks or any team has the right to hope for. Cooper can play alongside any kind of star in just about any perimeter role. Of course, Dallas must keep in mind that Flagg is their franchise now, and must humbly prioritize a playstyle that maximizes Cooper’s unselfish predation.¹ They must become an extension of him, and resist the temptation to use Cooper in a less creative, more rigid way just because it is convenient or appeases a coach’s ego.

It far too dismissive to ask of any prospect to “be more like Cooper Flagg.” Everyone is different and has their own developmental race to run. But Flagg’s multiverse of additive value is especially aspirational these days, where nearly every team has either a veteran or young on ball star (or 2, or 3) that they have invested heavily in.

Offball value is less a luxury and more a prerequisite than ever before. Most heralded young players, even ones taken in the high lottery, no longer have a guaranteed runway to a starting spot, let alone to the precious on-ball reps they may have dreamed of. They must immediately work off the ball as shooters, slashers, screeners, communicators, and effortful, cognizant defenders.

That mandate is the prism of my 2025 draft rankings. With very few exceptions, everyone must sacrifice. If Cooper Flagg can, why can’t you?

Tier 2: All-Star Talent with deep playoff value

2. Kon Knueppel, 6’5+, Duke. Elite 3-level shooter, connective playmaker, functional driver; defensive communicator, rotation executor, drive absorber

3. Dylan Harper, 6’5+, 6’10+ WS, Rutgers. Elite, high volume driver/finisher, On-ball playmaker, multi-level scorer; Paint/nail helper, 1-2 switch defender

4. Collin Murray-Boyles, 6’6+, 7’0 WS, South Carolina. Mismatch paint finisher, connective playmaker, downhill driver; Elite isolation switch defender, lead defensive anticipator, near-dominant rebounder (All-Defense potential)

5. Derik Queen, 6’10, 7’0+ WS, Maryland. Iso/PnR Driver and finisher, connective playmaker, midrange shotmaker; short-area deflector, iso drive disruptor, high-feel rebounder

At first glance, it may not seem like these four players share a lot in common, especially when it comes to offball value. Kon Knueppel, Flagg’s teammate, was an extraordinarily efficient connector and 3 level shooter at 19 years old, but a connector nonetheless. Harper is the more “traditional” high lotto, on-ball lead guard around whom his college team oriented its offense. CMB is a 235lb defensive menace, nimble on his feet and unstoppable in the SEC finishing around (and not necessarily above) the rim. Queen is an offensively tilted, pudgy PF/C/PG with arrhythmic hooper talent and feel pouring out of his hands.

And yet, each of them share a massively important trait for on and offball projection: they are physically strong with an awareness of how to leverage their body against their opponents. Have you watched the NBA lately? Contact (and injuries) are up, and the motivated migration of athletes from football to basketball has started to populate the league with very, very strong players. Functional strength, along with scoring efficiency and playmaking, are the durable traits that I am banking on most heavily to help good teams and pave the way for the most rewarding dart development.

Knueppel, not a bursty athlete, was a “surprisingly” effective driver because he used his thick shoulders to keep defenders away from his dribble and preserve angles for either another pass or his fundamentally beautiful jumper. He anticipated driving angles on defense and invited contact through his chest from naive opponents eager for a highlight, frequently bumping them off balance while Kon remained in front. And he already has a deep bag of strength based tricks to work defenders into bad positions off the ball as Kon prepared to sprint around screens, creating a geometric advantage before he touched the ball.

Harper’s wide shoulders weaponized his beautiful handle for finishing angles. He sported near legendary handling, driving, and finishing talent for a freshman guard, with flashes² of playmaking and shotmaking talent throughout the rest of his game. Even with his excellent finishing touch, it seemed like Harper was only scratching the surface of how he might use his body to slow down and clear space in the paint as a jumbo Brunson acolyte.

CMB is the draft’s strongest player, and he knows it. And not just through his torso and trunk, which displaced older, grown SEC bigs on virtually every post possession on either side of the ball. His strength extends through his arms, hands, and fingers, which enveloped and evaporated opposing guards trying to drive on him on the perimeter on switches.

Queen, a true original, is the physically biggest of these four, and merges strength with driving creativity so pronounced it borders on playfulness. He is one of the few prospects I have scouted who wants to fake a perimeter defender first before 1) torturously driving straight through them, and then 2) delicately decelerating at the room for some extra humiliation.

All of these players have high feel and make passes through windows that their strength frequently help opens. My order of them comes down to the seamlessness with which I think they can amplify their NBA teammates. Harper is the consensus number 2 pick, with good reason (especially since he will get to play with Victor Wembanyama). Lead guards are almost always drafted ahead of more connectory types like Knueppel.

My preference for Kon comes from my belief in his ability to constantly threaten NBA defenses off the ball and still punish them when he receives it. He likely does not want lead guard reps, but his incredible anticipation and feel for the game will radiate throughout his team’s possessions and will eventually impose itself as his team’s style, even if he plays alongside a more nominal high-volume guard like Lamelo Ball. Unselfish creativity is not only contagious, but it is frequently more difficult to guard than the ball-dominant style Harper prefers.

Harper can make that moot by either being that damned good on the ball or beefing up his offball skill. I would not rule either out, but as a sub-elite athlete with (it appears) sub-elite shooting talent, I think Harper will struggle to ascend above on-ball lead counterparts like Cade Cunningham, Jalen Brunson, Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards, Donovan Mitchell, etc. He has the brain to beef up his offball game, and Wembanyama’s tide will lift his boat. But I believe, at minimum, that it will take a change in approach and a substantial improvement in Harper’s overall conditioning to thrive that way. That sort of on and offball calibration is incredibly difficult to master if someone is tilted too far in one direction entering the league, and I have just enough skepticism to rather bet on Knueppel, athletic concerns and all.³

CMB and Queen each have a 3p shooting question, CMB moreso. It will take years for either to approach league average 3p volume, and most have them outside of the top 5, or even top 10 or lotto. I get that, to a point. But they were both efficient young scorers off the dribble against stiff competition, and that sort of talent tends to translate immediately, to the point where NBA defenses will give them as many reps as they need from 3 to build their game out. They are both so smart and so strong with enough dribbling talent that I find it nearly impossible that they will not find their way in the most spacious league in the world, with elite shooters around them to boot.

Though I enjoy Queen’s cat-and-mouse talent on defense, baiting opposing ballhandlers into his area so he can use his feline instincts to paw the ball away, he has a tweener issue there. He will never have good center dimensions or cover ground well as a PF, and so CMB’s remarkable defensive versatility is much more likely to help win deep playoff series.

Tier 3: Starter Talents with Deep Playoff Value

6. Tre Johnson, 6’5+, 6’10.5 WS, Texas. Elite movement shooter, iso shotmaker, PnR/connective passer; rotational defender, nail helper

7. Cedric Coward, 6’6+, 7’2+ WS, Eastern Washington. C&S shooter, mismatch bullyballer, connective playmaker/finisher; 2-3 position switch defender, connective defensive playmaker

8. VJ Edgecombe, 6’4+, 6’7.5 WS, Baylor. Electric downhill driver, connective playmaker, C&S/slashing finisher; Weakside rim protector, 2 position switch defender, connective defensive playmaker

9. Ace Bailey, 6’8+, 7’0.5 WS, Rutgers. Isolation shotmaker, C&S/slashing finisher, connective playmaker; Weakside rim protector, 2 position switch defender

10. Adou Thiero, 6’7, 7’0 WS, Arkansas. Elite downhill driver and finisher, connective playmaker, midrange shotmaker; 3-4 position switch defender, weakside rim protector, defensive playmaker (All-Defense potential)

11. Carter Bryant, 6’7+, 6’11.75 WS, Arizona. C&S/slashing finisher, offensive rebounder, connective passer; iso defensive playmaker, 2-3 position switch defender, voracious rebounder (light All-Defense potential)

12. Khaman Maluach, 7’1+, 7’6.75 WS, Duke. Vertical lob threat, floater touch finisher, C&S stretch theory; Lead drop/show rim protector, defensive communicator

Starting in the NBA to any degree of playoff success is very difficult. How difficult? Consider these 20 names:

Guards: Derrick White, Josh Hart, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Max Strus, Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Christian Braun, Jamal Murray

Wings: Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Jaden McDaniels, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon

Bigs: Mitchell Robinson, Myles Turner, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein,

These are all the players who started in Round 2 or later this year who have not 1) made an All Star game, or 2) won Defensive Player of the Year.

Judging from this list, it appears that to start in Round 2 or later, you must either be or have been an all defense selection or candidate (Chet, Dort, McDaniels, White, Nembhard, Bridges, Anunoby, Gordon), launch 3s in a variety of contexts more than nearly everyone at your position (Hield, Porter Jr., Turner, Nesmith), or nail down a low usage, two way role for a team that might need to bench you anyway because you aren’t good enough at either offense or defense (Robinson, Hartenstein, Wallace, Braun, Hart).

After Tier 2 (picks 2-5) are those who I ultimately do not project to make All-Star teams nor win Defensive Player of the year, so membership in this playoff group becomes their lofty goal. And picks 6-12 have the very best chance of cracking the list.

Tre Johnson, VJ Edgecombe, and Ace Bailey are the headliners from this group, and still very likely to all be off the board by 6, theatrics aside. As their presence here denotes, they each have traits that establish them as NBA starters with some upside (Tre’s all world movement shooting and underrated passing, VJ’s exceptional burst, athletic explosion, and underrated passing, Ace’s wing iso shotmaking and defensive tools).

But as far as All-Star talent goes, I struggle mightily with each. Tre has the best chance because he is, at worst, one of the 2 best shooters in the class, one who can be weaponized immediately in an NBA scheme more creative than the molassesball he sludged through at Texas. He will be a lethal shooter who can be positioned all over the court, and will have enough space to capitalize on his passing accuracy and low turnover drive game.

I just do not believe Tre is quite athletic enough to consistently threaten the rim, because he is yet to do so at any competitive basketball level. The rim is way too valuable an area for a putative All Star to concede. While I cannot underestimate Tre’s work ethic or the advantages he will enjoy with NBA spacing, I cannot quite project that he overcomes what is an absolutely loaded guard group every single season. But a Hield+ or Bane-esque starting role is well within his reach, and Tre is at least 3 years younger than Bane or Hield were entering the league.

VJ need not worry about athleticism; he is the most athletic guard in the class. And he is a near-remarkable connective passer on closeouts, a skill that will keep him in starting lineups and earn him trust among star teammates. But he must develop substantially in both his handle and in how he accesses his jumper (off the dribble pullups, stepbacks, etc). He is another crazy worker who bought fully into a connective role at Baylor, but 6’4 guards need to either run an offense or at least be capable of running offense for stretches to crack All Star conversations.

At his size, I think the skill development curve will likely prove too steep to become an All-Star, but his approach and defensive tools are good enough that I could see him finding his way as somewhere between Cason Wallace and Derrick White with extra athletic juice to boot. Those guards were both better shooters leaving college, but I can see VJ attaining a similar level of impact in the right team context. That’s an excellent player, and I understand those who see more of a star path. I will be pleasantly surprised if VJ gets there.

Ace, for all the melodrama surrounding him, is a tough, high effort player on offense and defense. Those star iso flashes are, frankly, quite flashy. They might one day look at home in a meaningful playoff series. But the NBA prioritizes much more the ability to create easy shots than the ability to convert tough ones. Ace struggles far too much with that crucial skill for me to project an All Star outcome. If he learns to hone his offball movement as Michael Porter Jr. or Aaron Gordon have (and if he is lucky enough to play off an MVP candidate), then Ace may find a deep playoff stage to dance on.

Carter Bryant will have a similar theory, but with much less proclivity for the spectacular than Ace. He is a superior defensive talent to Ace though (all-defense in the right year, perhaps), with a stronger frame and more success holding up physically against grown college players. Bryant is a manic defender and rebounder, the type who teams will always give a chance to in hopes that his offense becomes “playoff guardable.” His reluctance off the bounce gives me reservations, but there is enough there to squeeze into this tier.

Cedric Coward and Adou Thiero are physically gifted wings and top 10 party crashers, with Coward having enjoyed a consistent draft season rise and Thiero still mostly slept on. Each also has a juicy pre-draft narrative: Coward started at D-III Willamette as an 18 year old before eventually matriculating to Washington State this past year before succumbing to a shoulder injury after a hot start. Thiero has grown nearly a foot since his early high school years and landed at blue blood Kentucky two years ago before following John Calipari to Arkansas. Calipari has a checkered history⁴ in maximizing his NBA talents, and given Thiero’s exceptional athleticism, you can certainly understand why his current second round projection seems a bit off.

Coward and Thiero (and Bryant) each comment on how high the athletic bar to starting on the perimeter is rising. All 3 stick out so much physically relative to the other wings in the draft: each weighing in between 210-220lbs, each with a max vertical of at least 38 inches, and each with a wingspan of at least 6’11. They are the only 3 wings to cross that threshold in this class.

Here are all the wings from the prior couple years to join the club based on combine measurements (>6’11 WS, >38” max vert, 210-220lbs).

2024: Ryan Dunn

2023: Amen Thompson & Ausar Thompson⁵, Olivier Maxence-Prosper

2022: Jalen Williams⁶

The Thompsons and JDub are already minted as Top 10 redraft talents at worst (Top 3 for Amen and JDub). Opinions vary about Dunn and Omax, but there is little debate that they athletically fit on an NBA court. Their questions revolve around how much shooting and overall offensive feel they possess (and possessed at draft time). Their ball-skill cupboard is bare enough that they are almost more small 5s than anything else.

Well then: Bryant and Coward, Coward especially, are worlds better as shooters than Dunn and OMP were entering the league. Thiero, a former PG, is a much more confident handler and driver, and his driving talent deserves special mention. Very few players, if any that I have scouted, drive with the twitchy aggression that borders on recklessness that Thiero does. He is psychotically committed to getting downhill and deals out as much punishment as he receives, which is to say, a lot. Thiero can sometimes look as though he is playing an entirely different sport that I call “crashball,” also practiced by Lugentz Dort and Jalen Suggs (both smaller than Adou). It can be legitimately frightening, but when Thiero applies all of that force and will on defense, it’s opposing ballhandlers that are shaking in their shoes.

Like Dunn, Thiero is an All-Defense level talent. Dunn locked down a rotation spot despite some of the most horrific predraft shooting indicators ever for a wing. Thiero shot nearly 50% in the midrange and looks to me to have a much more projectable jumper.

Thiero and Coward both need a bunch of reps to round out their passing reads, enough so that I doubt they are ever entrusted with enough usage to sniff the All Star Game. I prefer Coward because of his shooting talent (>80% FT for college career, >60% TS at every collegiate level), but both of them (and Bryant) have so much scarce NBA talent to offer that they demand inclusion here.

As for Khaman Maluach: he must shoot 3s. A lot of them. His dimensions and talent as a lob finisher are wonderful, but in short, his defensive projection is more wishful than realistic. Khaman has a good defensive base and can develop into a sound, imposing center in a couple of different conservative schemes, but as the NBA continues to prioritize stronger, switchier defenders up and down the lineup, a good-but-not-great athlete like Maluach will find himself very matchup dependent as stakes rise, unless his encouraging shooting indicators manifest beyond the arc. I will not write it off, but with such little 3p volume thus far, I cannot bank it either.

Tier 4: High Rotation/Low Starter Talents; Replaceable Playoff Value

13. Rasheer Fleming, 6’9, 7’5.25 WS, Saint Joseph’s.

14. Walter Clayton Jr., 6’2+, 6’4 WS, Florida.

15. Nique Clifford, 6’6, 6’8 WS, Colorado State.

16. Thomas Sorber, 6’10, 7’6 WS, Georgetown.

17. Maxime Raynaud, 7’1, 7’1.25 WS, Stanford.

18. Jeremiah Fears, 6’3+, 6’5.25 WS, Oklahoma.

19. Noa Essengue, 6’11, 7’0.75 WS, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany).

20. Danny Wolf, 6’11+, 7’2.25 WS, Michigan.

21. Kasparas Jakucionis, 6’5+, 6’7.75 WS, Illinois.

22. Joan Beringer, 7’0, 7’4 WS, Cedevita Olimpija (Slovenia).

23. Jase Richardson, 6’1+, 6’6 WS, Michigan State.

Tier 4.5 More High Rotation/Low Starter, Fuzzier Playoff Role

24. Noah Penda, 6’8, 6’11.5 WS, Le Mans (France).

25. Will Riley, 6’9, 6’8.75 WS, Illinois.

26. Hansen Yang, 7’1+, 7’2.75 WS, Qingdao Doublestar Golden Eagles (China).

27. Kam Jones, 6’4, 6’6 WS, Marquette.

28. Asa Newell, 6’9+, 6’11.25 WS, Georgia.

29. Ben Saraf, 6’6+, 6’8.75 WS, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany).

30. Ryan Kalkbrenner, 7’1+, 7’6.25 WS, Creighton

31. Egor Demin, 6’9, 6’10.25 WS, BYU.

32. Johni Broome, 6’10, 7’0.25 WS, Auburn.

33. Alijah Martin, 6’2+, 6’7.5 WS, Florida.

34. RJ Luis, 6’6+, 6’10.5 WS, St. John’s.

35. Jamir Watkins, 6’5+, 6’11.25 WS, Florida St.

36. Drake Powell, 6’6, 7’0 WS, North Carolina.

37. Will Richard, 6’5, 6’10.5 WS, Florida.

38. Bogoljub Markovic, 6’11+, 6’11.5 WS, Mega Superbet (Adriatic).

39. Sion James, 6’5+, 6’6.5 WS, Duke.

40. Liam McNeeley, 6’7+, 6’8.5 WS, Uconn.

41. John Tonje, 6’5+, 6’9 WS, Wisconsin.

42. Rocco Zikarsky, 7’3+, 7’4.75 WS, Brisbane Bullets (Australia).

43. Chaz Lanier, 6’4+, 6’9 WS, Tennessee.

44. Nolan Traore, 6’4+, 6’8 WS, Saint Quentin (France).

45. Koby Brea, 6’6+, 6’5.25 WS, Kentucky.

46. Micah Peavy, 6’7, 6’7.25 WS, Georgetown.

47. Javon Small, 6’2+, 6’4.75 WS, West Virginia

The guts of this draft has plenty of theoretical role player value. While Tier 3 (6-12) have higher ceilings and more of my confidence, Tiers 4 and 4.5 have an abundance of shooting, connector playmaking, defensive feel and toolsplaymaking, and positional size. Just rarely do enough of them overlap in the same player. Consider those Tier 3 categories again:

1. All-Defense talents who can fit on offense

2. High, high volume 3 point shooters with enough size and athleticism

3. Low-usage, two way connector talents that thrive on connector playmaking and defensive ground coverage

The same broad theories apply in Tiers 4 and 4.5, but with slightly lower ceilings or size limitations. Plus, one replacement category:

1. Low usage, two-way connector talents with sub All-Defense ceilings (Steven Adams, Kris Dunn, Dillon Brooks, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Scotty Pippen Jr., etc)

2. High, high volume 3 point shooters with *some* size/athleticism/playmaking (Malik Beasley, Landry Shamet, Sam Merrill, Bojan Bogdanovic, etc)

3. Offensively tilted “microwave” players who cannot bear star usage but are not relentlessly hunted on defense (Naz Reid, Kelly Olynyk, Obi Toppin, Bennedict Mathurin, Caris Levert, Collin Sexton, etc)

These are still crucially important; we are talking about possible NBA starters commanding $20 million a year or more, who can have big time playoff moments. They just tend to toggle between the 4th and 7th man on a given team depending on context and matchups.

Category 1, Tier 4: Rasheer Fleming, Nique Clifford, Thomas Sorber, Noa Essengue, Joan Beringer

Category 2, Tier 4: Walter Clayton Jr.

Category 3, Tier 4: Maxime Raynaud, Jeremiah Fears, Danny Wolf, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jase Richardson

Category 1, Tier 4.5: Penda, Newell, Kalkbrenner, Broome, Martin, Luis, Watkins, Powell, Richard, James, Zikarsky, Peavy, Yang

Category 2, Tier 4.5: McNeeley, Tonje, Lanier, Brea

Category 3, Tier 4.5: Riley, Jones, Markovic, Small, Traore, Demin, Saraf

The separation between tiers here is obviously slim, and I easily could have extended 13-23 for another 10 players. But in an historically competitive league with finite role player opportunities, I defaulted to the (positionally) biggest and most athletic, and the most dynamic offensive skillsets.

So Rasheer Fleming, Nique Clifford, Noa Essengue, and Joan Beringer get the edge over Noah Penda, Asa Newell, and co. Fleming, somewhat reminiscent of Ryan Dunn and Omax mentioend earlier, is a hybrid wing/big with a 7’5 wingspan⁷ and has shown enough as a 3p shooter and cutter/dunker to get consistent NBA opportunities for awhile. His offensive connectivity and overall handle needs a lot of work, and he is more reactive than proactive, but even still, he was a deflections machine with dunks and 3s galore. If he ever feels comfortable dictating defensive communication on the court (a big if, to be sure), he can start and return Top 10 value in the class.

Nique Clifford is one of the 10 best current basketball players in the draft. He does it all as a late-blooming guard with a bunch of positional athleticism, exceptional connective passing vision, and a penchant for filling up box scores while maintaing a team-first, egalitarian play style. I have said that Nique is Josh Hart if Josh Hart did not realize he were Josh Hart. The primary difference, and why Nique is 15 instead of 8, is that he is around 190 pounds and already 23 years old (compare to Coward/Thiero/Bryant in previous tier). The NBA is much less forgiving to a slender frame like that unless you are a world class shooter. Nique is good, and should find his minutes, but unlikely to lock down a no-doubt, context-independent starting role.

Essengue and Beringer are long striding, long-armed foreigners with a lot of theoretical defensive menace. Penda is the actual best defender of the 3, with an NBA-ready frame and brain (if anything, Penda could shed some weight). But he does not quite cover ground in the same way as the former 2. And while none of these 3 are reliable shooters, Essengue at least has some tape of putting the ball on the deck and pressuring downhill consistenly to draw fouls. Penda is slower-footed, and Beringer is an uber-athletic, big man basketball baby. He is one of the 5 best pure athletes in the class⁸ and might merit a higher selection than 22 based on that alone. But the NBA is not the studio space it once was, especially for a big. Beringer is likely to stay in a complimentary, rotation-center type of role barring a ton of unexpected skill development.

Walter Clayton Jr., despite being 22 and around 6’2, is one of the draft’s 3 best shooters along with Tre Johnson and Kon Knueppel. And no one matches Clayton’s speed from deciding to shoot, no matter where he is on the court (even with his back to the basket), to having the shot up and opposing defenses groaning with dread.

Other one and done guards (Fears, Jakucionis, Richardson, Egor Demin) might have more handle talent (Fears, Richardson) or playmaking talent and feel (Jak, Demin), but none of them, in my opinion, will ever be able to light nets on fire or command defensive attention like Walt. Demin, Fears, and Jakucionis all have their fans, but NBA starting PGs are just too good for me to think any of them actually crack that club for a winning team. Hell, half the time a winning team’s PG is actually a superstar wing-sized player, and those 3 do not possess the defensive chops (or in Jase’s case, the size) to help those stars out enough for a consistent starting spot. They are NBA players, but more fungible than a talent like Walt, who is at least an equal defensive prospect to all of them.

Thomas Sorber, Ryan Kalkbrenner, and Hansen Yang all gave me a bit of trouble, and I may be too low on all 3. The NBA seems to be migrating toward “double big” lineups as long as those bigs are sufficiently skilled, smart, and strong. All 3 of these players have unique talent, though Sorber is the youngest, strongest, and likely most advanced as a two-way prospect. His exceptional wingspan, feel, and motor are all over his tape, where he regularly guards multiple players on the same possession, rotating and blowing up actions and layups with crispness and anger.

He is an audacious passer and an unpleasant post banger, though he lacks real athletic pop to get up off the ground or blow by his counterparts when he is facing up. That, along with his shorter stature, is why Sorber did not make Tier 3, but make no mistake: he may very well end up the better player than Maluach, and is virtually guaranteed to help a good team at some point.

The gargantuan Kalkbrenner is the best vertical threat and current shooter out of the 3, and as Big East Defensive Player of the Year multiple times over, he is a hand-in-glove fit as a center in drop coverage. You could easily imagine Kalkbrenner landing on an All-Rookie team as an immediate rotation center, and if his shooting is real enough, he will out perform my ranking by about 15 spots. But as a 23 year old whose offensive usage was always relatively low, I worry a bit that the NBA is headed towards a more dynamic offensive environment than Kalkbrenner’s janitorial work, and his only-average movement skills do not help. But she should certainly should help good teams in a smaller role at minimum.

Yang has the best passing skills of any big, and arguably any player, in the entire draft. He has detractors for playing professionally China but 1) he was good for a good team there, and 2) he’s Chinese, what do you want from him? His touch also looks pretty encouraging and like Sorber, he has enough natural feel to direct a lot of traffic, especially on offense. Hansen’s challenge, apart from his shooting being unproven, will be hanging athletically and getting to neutral on defense, especially when he backpedals. But giant players who think faster than their opponents tend to mitigate those concerns, and Yang’s feel gives him an underrated ability to play alongside more athletic players. Everyone beware. (Including me).

Maxime Raynaud and Danny Wolf are a delightful addition to this year’s first round crop. Each over 6’11, each with unique offensive talent. Wolf plays like a point guard with legitimate center size, with a confident handle and eyes constantly focused on creating and leveraging passing angles to his frontcourt partner (ranked below!) Vlad Goldin. Giant players who can handle belong in the NBA because defenses react to them, sometimes more than they deserve. Wolf is still maddening because he creates himself into plenty of turnovers, and he was surprisingly poor around the rim for someone with his talent. Whispers of an outstanding “workout shooting” season are encouraging, but only to point. I find it unlikely that WOlf ever fully escapes “novelty” territory unless that shooting pops, but we will be an NBA novelty, and that counts for something.

Raynaud, meanwhile, is a rocket launcher. A 7’1 jumbo jumbo wing, Raynaud was a box score stuffer and by far the best shooting 7 footer in the country. If he can provide any defensive value as a center whatsoever (a valid question) Raynaud will provide the 5-out spacing so coveted by every team in the NBA. And he does not just space; Raynaud can attack closeouts, finish drives, and I believe he will pass on the move well in NBA space. It took some restraint to not list him higher, but some team will be very pleased they have him next season. Coaches can mask defensive flaws for players this big, but they cannot make players this big shoot and drive this well.

Asa Newell merits optimism since I think he has a slim chance to return lottery value as well. Asa was a dunks machine with some rim protection⁹ and a toe-dipping volume of 3 point attempts. But out of all the bigs with shooting theories in this class (Queen, Malauch, Sorber, Yang, Wolf), I would rank Newell 2nd, only trailing Queen. His form is smooth, particularly through his legs, and if that shot arrives, he will be a viable offensive player.

Evaluators tend to view freshman “specialists” like Asa too narrowly, forgetting that someone who can be a specialist on an NBA court at a young age can grow into something more interesting. I can see Asa eventually filling an athletic, Obi Toppin or Brandon Clarke-adjacent role, and Asa is much younger than either of them were entering the league. The right dominoes need to fall, and Asa is likely too small to play 5, so there should be some restraint in his projection. But do not forget or underestimate him. Perhaps I have.

Ben Saraf, a proud Luka Doncic disciple, has absorbed Luka’s confident play recognition and an arrhythmic handle that frequently opens passing lanes. He is a worthwhile first round bet because despite his iffy shooting, a timing-based driver like him is a decent bet to create space in the NBA. If he were Luka-sized, as opposed to the above-average frame he has, he would be in the lotto or close to it.

I prefer Saraf’s sort of athletically-challenged creativity to Egor Demin’s, who has not demonstrated a comfort level in consistently trying to score, let alone actually scoring. Demin can certainly pass, and he has size, but it is hard to envision how it is more likely that he helps a good team rather than absorb possessions on a bad one.

Likewise, Will Riley is a skinny, overstretched ballhandler who might provide some superificial similarity to Demin even though he played off of Jakucionis in college. But Riley chains a shotmaker mentality to his jumbo-guard handle, and I prefer his shooting projection to Demin’s. Riley has also been adding weight rapidly since he stopped stretching out, and bears watching if he ever reaches “average” NBA strength.

Kam Jones might seem like a high-floor, low ceiling player, and in some sense he is. His raw athleticism and physical dimensions are unremarkable, and he will likely only ever guard opposing 1s or perhaps undersized 2s.

But do not bet against Kam securing 3 NBA contracts. He is an absolute savant and getting to and finishing around (and below) the rim. He is such a clever finisher, so adept at keeping his handle alive against bigger defenders, that I believe there is a TJ McConnell sort of role potentially available to him. Efficient offensive players who can access each area of the floor stick around, and Kam will prove quite adhesive.

I am not going to provide expanded thoughts into the rest of these players. Some have starter-level shooting chops but not necessarily the athleticism, others vice versa. Ironically, the two most well rounded guys are likely Alijah Martin and WIll Richard, supporting guards on Walter Clayton’s historically dominant national champion Florida Gators. Both are a bit undersized, but they combine perimeter defense with scoring efficiency better than tilted bets like Jamir Watkins, RJ Luis, and Micah Peavy. Each of those three are longer, twitchier defensive bets with bigtime usage roles on their college squads, and each is worth an investment to see what a shooting coach can get out of them. Watkins is likely the best physical talent, Luis the best shotmaker.

Drake Powell’s outstanding combine will have him likely go in Round 1, but he was a low low usage wing on a mediocre (to put it kindly) North Carolina team. Powell needs to develop every facet of his offensive game, and it will take years to find out if that fruit ever ripens.

Eventual Rotation Minutes Eaters

47. Kadary Richmond

48. Hunter Sallis

49. Sean Padulla

50. Vlad Goldin

51. Tamar Bates

52. Hugo Gonzalez

53. Amari Williams

54. Kobe Sanders

55. Max Shulga

56. Alex Toohey

57. Chase Hunter

58. Tyrese Proctor

59. Matthew Cleveland

60. Yanic Niederhauser

61. Dink Pate

62. Nate Bittle

63. Ryan Nembhard

64. Clifford Omoruyi

65. Zack Austin

That’s the 2025 draft. Players are getting stronger, faster, and smarter. May we all enjoy their footprint on our favorite game. Stay healthy, darts.

Thank you all so much for reading. Find your dartboard, and start chucking.

1. As we know, humble acknowledgement and accomodation of star talent is no problem in Dallas.

2. Or inconsistency (75% FT, 33% 3p) if you would like to reserve optimism given Rutgers lack of success in the big ten.

3. I do understand those concerns. But Kon was a monstrously successful high school lead guard (30-0 his senior season) and a monstrously successful freshman college connector guard (35-4 on the country’s 2nd most dominant team) in successive seasons. His anticipation has compensated thus far, and I am happy to be proven wrong if that trend dissipates.

4. Underdrafted Cal players during his Kentucky years: Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Devin Booker, Tyrese Maxey, Tyler Herro. All outside the top 10.

5. They did not test their vertical leaps at the combine. I feel confident proclaiming that they could have jumped really really high.

6. Other players who did not fully test but would likely pass the test from that year: Tari Eason, Jeremy Sochan, Keegan Murray

7. OG Anunoby, his wish-upon-a-dart comp, is around 7’2-7’3.

8. Top 4 in some order: Flagg, Edgecombe, Thiero, Beringer, and then either CMB or Carter Bryant. HM Drake Powell.

9. A lot of Newell’s rim protection was not necessarily against NBA-style offenses. But he held up well against fellow SEC post up bigs, which included Collin Murray-Boyles.